Verification of NOAA Space Environmental Laboratory forecasts: 1 January-31 December 1994

This summary report compiles verification statistics for the primary forecasts issued by the NOAA Space Environment Laboratory (SEL). The following forecasts are evaluated: probability forecasts of M-class, X-class, and Proton flares expected for each of the next three days; integer-value forecasts of 10.7 cm Solar Flux, Fredericksburg AIndex, and Planetary A-Index for each of the next seven days; and next-day probability forecasts of geomagnet Tivity levels at middle latitudes. This report, the second in a series, covers forecasts made during 1 January to 31 December 1994. The first such report [1] covers SEL forecasts made during 1993.

本总结报告汇编了美国国家海洋和大气管理局空间环境实验室（NOAA Space Environment Laboratory，SEL）发布的核心预报的验证统计结果。本次评估覆盖以下预报类型：未来三日每日的M级、X级及质子耀斑发生概率预报；未来七日每日的10.7厘米太阳流量（10.7 cm Solar Flux）、弗雷德里克斯堡地磁A指数（Fredericksburg AIndex）及行星A指数（Planetary A-Index）整数值预报；以及中纬度地区次日地磁活动水平概率预报。本报告为系列报告的第二篇，涵盖1994年1月1日至12月31日期间发布的所有预报。该系列的首份报告[1]则覆盖了1993年SEL发布的预报。