Data and Code for: Forward-Only Temporal-Coherence Occupancy Regimes in Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution (1851–2024)

This repository contains the data and code required to reproduce the forward-only temporal-coherence occupancy diagnostic described in the manuscript: “Forward-Only Temporal-Coherence Occupancy Regimes in Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution (1851–2024)” The analysis is based on the Atlantic HURDAT2 best-track dataset (1851–2024), publicly distributed by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/). The repository provides: a minimal HURDAT2 preprocessing utility, a reference Python implementation of the forward-only temporal-coherence occupancy diagnostic, example datasets for validation and testing, reproducibility metadata and validation artifacts. The diagnostic is constructed using: causal rolling means of maximum sustained wind speed (VMAX) across 3-, 5-, and 9-advisory windows, one-step tendencies of those rolling means, directional agreement across multiple temporal windows, a forward-only activation rule based on sustained multi-window temporal coherence. Active occupancy duration is defined as the cumulative duration of active advisories under the operational activation rule and is evaluated relative to rapid intensification (RI) occurrence and event-time structure. All computations are performed sequentially in time using only current and prior observations. No look-ahead terms or future-state information are used. This repository is intentionally minimal and public-facing. It provides a transparent VMAX-only reproducibility implementation of the occupancy diagnostic used in the manuscript. The repository does not include private PTEM components, structure-aware internal metrics, HC/DC modules, resonance/spine internals, microwave adapters, or other unpublished proprietary architecture. Because both the diagnostic and RI labels derive from VMAX, the analyses evaluate temporal stratification, occupancy structure, and non-equivalence rather than statistical independence between fully distinct observational systems. The materials provided here are sufficient to reproduce the public-facing diagnostic analyses presented in the manuscript from the HURDAT2 dataset under forward-only replay conditions.本代码仓库包含复现论文《大西洋热带气旋强度演变中的仅前向时间一致性占比状态（1851–2024）》中所述的仅前向时间一致性占比诊断所需的数据与代码。 本分析基于美国国家飓风中心（National Hurricane Center）公开发布的大西洋飓风最佳路径数据集HURDAT2（1851–2024），公开获取地址为https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/。 本仓库提供以下内容： 1. 轻量化的HURDAT2数据预处理工具； 2. 仅前向时间一致性占比诊断的参考Python实现； 3. 用于验证与测试的示例数据集； 4. 可复现性元数据与验证产物。 该诊断方法基于以下要素构建： - 3、5、9个报次窗口下，最大持续风速（VMAX）的因果滑动均值； - 上述滑动均值的单步变化倾向； - 多时间窗口下的方向一致性； - 基于持续多窗口时间一致性的仅前向激活规则。 活跃占比时长被定义为符合业务激活规则的活跃报次的累计时长，并将其与快速增强（RI）事件的发生及时空结构进行对比评估。 所有计算均仅基于当前及过往观测值按时间顺序依次执行，未使用任何前瞻项或未来状态信息。 本仓库设计为轻量化、面向公众的开源项目，仅提供论文中使用的、仅基于VMAX的可复现透明占比诊断实现。本仓库未包含私有PTEM组件、结构感知内部指标、HC/DC模块、共振/骨干内部逻辑、微波适配器或其他未公开的专有架构。 由于诊断方法与快速增强（RI）标签均源自最大持续风速（VMAX），因此本分析旨在评估时间分层、占比结构与非等价性，而非完全独立观测系统间的统计独立性。 本文提供的材料足以在仅前向回放条件下，基于HURDAT2数据集复现论文中公开的占比诊断分析结果。