Populism or budgetary endogeneity? Discretionary fiscal policy in Argentina

ABSTRACT This paper uses the Fischer equation and Olivera-Tanzi effect to insulate the inflationary endogeneity existing in Argentine public deficit. The outcome is a fiscal policy discretionary measure known as zero inflation budget. Through this measure we examine if the deficit reflects countercyclical policies or populist consumption targets.

摘要 本文运用费雪方程（Fischer Equation）与奥利维拉-坦齐效应（Olivera-Tanzi Effect），剥离阿根廷公共赤字中存在的通货膨胀内生性。研究成果衍生出一项被称为零通胀预算的相机抉择财政政策工具。依托该政策工具，本文旨在检验公共赤字究竟是逆周期调控政策的体现，还是民粹主义消费目标的产物。