Data and Code for: National and global impacts of genetically modified crops

We estimate the impact of GM crops on countrywide yields, harvested area, and trade using a triple-differences roll-out design that exploits variation in the availability of GM seeds across crops, countries, and time. We find positive impacts on yields, especially in poor countries. Our estimates imply that without GM crops, the world would have needed 3.4 percent additional cropland to keep global agricultural output at its 2019 level. We also find that bans on GM cultivation have limited the global gain from GM adoption to one third of its potential. Poor countries would benefit the most from lifting such bans

我们采用三重差分推广设计评估转基因作物（GM crops）对各国产量、收获面积及贸易的影响，该设计利用了转基因种子在作物类型、国家及时间维度上的可获得性差异。研究发现转基因作物对产量具有积极影响，尤其在贫困国家表现显著。我们的估算显示，若不采用转基因作物，全球需额外增加3.4%的耕地才能使农业产出维持在2019年的水平。此外，我们发现转基因作物种植禁令将全球从转基因技术应用中获得的收益限制在其潜在收益的三分之一。贫困国家将从解除此类禁令中获益最多。