Chinese Economic Statecraft and U.S. Hegemony in Latin America: An Empirical Analysis, 2003–2014

If one interprets China's sizable rise in Latin America as an unprecedented phenomenon, it follows that the concurrent story of declining U.S. influence in the region is an event hastily acknowledged at best and ignored at worst. In this article, we ask whether Chinese economic statecraft in Latin America is related to the declining U.S. hegemonic influence in the region and explore how. To do so we analyze foreign direct investments, bank loans, and international trade from 2003 to 2014, when China became a major player in the region. We use data from 21 Latin American countries, and find that an inversely proportional relationship exists between the investments made by Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs), bank loans, manufacturing exports, and the U.S. hegemonic influence exerted in the region. In other words, Beijing has filled the void left by a diminished U.S. presence in the latter's own backyard.

若将中国在拉丁美洲地区的大规模崛起视为前所未有的现象，则美国在该地区影响力同步衰减的相关进程，充其量仅能得到仓促承认，最坏情形下则会完全遭到无视。本文旨在探讨中国在拉丁美洲推行的经济战略是否与美国在该地区的霸权影响力衰减存在关联，并对二者的内在作用机制展开探究。为此，本文选取2003年至2014年（即中国成长为该地区重要参与方的时间段）的对外直接投资（Foreign Direct Investment，FDI）、银行贷款与国际贸易数据进行分析。本文使用21个拉丁美洲国家的相关数据，研究发现：中国国有企业（State-Owned Enterprises，SOEs）对外投资、银行贷款以及制成品出口规模，与美国在该地区施加的霸权影响力之间呈反比关系。换言之，在美国自身的后院中，其影响力日渐式微所留下的真空地带，已由中国填补。