Descriptive statistics of sample data.

The global food prices have surged to historical highs, and there is no consensus on the reasons behind this round of price increases in academia. Based on theoretical analysis, this study uses monthly data from January 2000 to May 2022 and machine learning models to examine the root causes of that period’s global food price surge and global food security situation. The results show that: Firstly, the increase in the supply of US dollars and the rise in oil prices during pandemic are the two most important variables affecting food prices. The unlimited quantitative easing monetary policy of the US dollar is the primary factor driving the global food price surge, and the alternating impact of oil prices and excessive US dollar liquidity are key features of the surge. Secondly, in the context of the global food shortage, the impact of food production reduction and demand growth expectations on food prices will further increase. Thirdly, attention should be paid to potential agricultural import supply chain risks arising from international uncertainty factors such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has profoundly impacted the global agricultural supply chain, and crude oil and fertilizers have gradually become the main driving force behind the rise in food prices.

全球粮食价格已飙升至历史高位，学界对于此轮粮食价格上涨的成因尚未达成共识。本研究基于理论分析，采用2000年1月至2022年5月的月度数据与机器学习模型，探究了该时期全球粮食价格飙升的根源与全球粮食安全形势。研究结果显示：其一，疫情期间美元供应量增长与油价上涨是影响粮食价格的两大核心变量；美国无上限量化宽松货币政策是推动全球粮食价格飙升的首要因素，而油价与美元流动性过剩的交替影响则是此次价格飙升的关键特征。其二，在全球粮食短缺的背景下，粮食减产与需求增长预期对粮食价格的影响将进一步加剧。其三，需警惕由俄乌冲突等国际不确定性因素引发的农产品进口供应链潜在风险。俄乌冲突已对全球农业供应链造成深远影响，原油与化肥逐渐成为推动粮食价格上涨的主要驱动力。