Distribution of large carnivores in Europe 2012 - 2016: Distribution maps for Brown bear, Eurasian lynx, Grey wolf, and Wolverine

Regular assessments of species’ status are an essential component of conservation planning and adaptive management. They allow the progress of past or ongoing conservation actions to be evaluated and can be used to redirect and prioritise future conservation actions. Most countries perform periodic assessments for their own national adaptive management procedures or national red lists. Furthermore, the countries of the European Union have to report on the status of all species listed on the directives of the Habitats Directive every 6 years as part of their obligations under Article 17. However, these national level assessments are often made using non-standardised procedures and do not always adequately reflect the biological units (i.e. the populations) which are needed for ecologically meaningful assessments.

Since the early 2000’s the Large Carnivore Initiative for Europe (a Specialist Group of the IUCN’s Species Survival Commission) has been coordinating periodic surveys of the status of large carnivores across Europe (e.g. von Arx et al. 2004; Salvatori & Linnell 2005, Kaczensky et al. 2013). These have covered the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), the wolf (Canis lupus), the brown bear (Ursus arctos) and the wolverine (Gulo gulo). These surveys involve the contributions of the best available experts and sources of information. While the underlying data quality and field methodology varies widely across Europe, these coordinated assessments do their best to integrate the diverse data in a comparable manner and make the differences transparent. They also endeavour to conduct the assessments on the most important scales. This includes the continental scale (all countries except for Russia, Belarus, Moldova and the parts of Ukraine outside the Carpathian mountain range), the scale of the EU 28 (where the Habitats Directive operates) and of the biological populations which reflect the scale at which ecological processes occur (Linnell et al. 2008). In this way, the independent LCIE assessments provide a valuable complement to the ongoing national processes.

Our last assessments covered the period 2006-2011 (Kaczensky et al. 2013; Chapron et al. 2014). The current assessment is mainly based on the period 2012-2016 and broadly follows the same methodology. The population definitions used in this report broadly follow those proposed in Linnell et al. (2008) and described in Kaczensky et al. (2013). However, as these were always intended to be dynamic definitions there have been a few small changes, namely the upgrading of the lynx in the Harz mountains to being a population (formerly they were viewed as an “occurrence”), and the exclusion of the wolves in the Sierra Morena mountains of southern Spain because of their regional extinction. 

Additional information on issues related to large carnivore status assessment is available in other reports. For example, Linnell & Cretois (2018) summarise data on large carnivore depredation on livestock, Linnell (2013) summarises data on social conflicts associated with large carnivore recovery, and Boitani et al. (2015) summarises key actions required to address the main threats facing large carnivores in Europe.

References

Boitani, L., F. Alvarez, O. Anders, H. Andren, E. Avanzinelli, V. Balys, J. C. Blanco, U. Breitenmoser, G. Chapron, P. Ciucci, A. Dutsov, C. Groff, D. Huber, O. Ionescu, F. Knauer, I. Kojola, J. Kubala, M. Kutal, J. Linnell, A. Majic, P. Mannil, R. Manz, F. Marucco, D. Melovski, A. Molinari, H. Norberg, S. Nowak, J. Ozolins, S. Palazon, H. Potocnik, P.-Y. Quenette, I. Reinhardt, R. Rigg, N. Selva, A. Sergiel, M. Shkvyria, J. Swenson, A. Trajce, M. Von Arx, M. Wolfl, U. Wotschikowsky, D. Zlatanova, 2015. Key actions for Large Carnivore populations in Europe. Institute of Applied Ecology (Rome, Italy). Report to DG Environment, European Commission, Bruxelles. Contract no. 07.0307/2013/654446/SER/B3
Chapron, G., Kaczensky, P., Linnell, J.D.C., von Arx, M., Huber, D., Andrén, H., López-Bao, J.V., Adamec, M., Álvares, F., Anders, O., Balčiauskas, L., Balys, V., Bedő, P., Bego, F., Blanco, J.C., Breitenmoser, U., Brøseth, H., Bufka, L., Bunikyte, R., Ciucci, P., Dutsov, A., Engleder, T., Fuxjäger, C., Groff, C., Holmala, K., Hoxha, B., Iliopoulos, Y., Ionescu, O., Jeremić, J., Jerina, K., Kluth, G., Knauer, F., Kojola, I., Kos, I., Krofel, M., Kubala, J., Kunovac, S., Kusak, J., Kutal, M., Liberg, O., Majić, A., Männil, P., Manz, R., Marboutin, E., Marucco, F., Melovski, D., Mersini, K., Mertzanis, Y., Mysłajek, R.W., Nowak, S., Odden, J., Ozolins, J., Palomero, G., Paunović, M., Persson, J., Potočnik, H., Quenette, P.-Y., Rauer, G., Reinhardt, I., Rigg, R., Ryser, A., Salvatori, V., Skrbinšek, T., Stojanov, A., Swenson, J.E., Szemethy, L., Trajçe, A., Tsingarska[1]Sedefcheva, E., Váňa, M., Veeroja, R., Wabakken, P., Wölfl, M., Wölfl, S., Zimmermann, F., Zlatanova, D. & Boitani, L. 2014. Recovery of large carnivores in Europe’s modern human-dominated landscapes. Science 346(6216): 1517-1519.
Kaczensky, P., Chapron, G., Von Arx, M., Huber, D., Andrén, H. & Linnell, J. 2013. Status, management and distribution of large carnivores - bear, lynx, wolf and wolverine - in Europe. Istituto di Ecologia Applicata, Rome, Italy.
Linnell, J.D.C., Cretois, B., 2018. Research for AGRI Committee – The revival of wolves and other large predators and its impact on farmers and their livelihood in rural regions of Europe. Research for AGRI Committee – The revival of wolves and other large predators and its impact on farmers and their livelihood in rural regions of Europe, European Parliament, Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies, Brussels.
Linnell, J.D.C. 2013. From conflict to coexistence: insights from multi-disciplinary research into the relationships between people, large carnivores and institutions. Istituto di Ecologia Applicata, Rome.
Linnell, J.D.C., Salvatori, V. & Boitani, L. 2008. Guidelines for population level management plans for large carnivores in Europe. A Large Carnivore Initiative for Europe report prepared for the European Commission (contract 070501/2005/424162/MAR/B2).
Salvatori, V. & Linnell, J.D.C. 2005. Report on the conservation status and threats for wolf (Canis lupus) in Europe. Council of Europe Report T-PVS/Inf (2005) 16.
von Arx, M., Breitenmoser-Würsten, C., Zimmermann, F. & Breitenmoser, U. 2004. Status and conservation of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Europe in 2001. KORA Report 19e: 1- 330.

Methods
The mapping approach follows the methods described in Chapron et al. (2014) and Kaczensky et al. (2013). It updates the published Species Online Layers (SPOIS) to the period 2012-2016.

In short, large carnivore presence was mapped at a 10x10 km ETRS89-LAEA Europe grid scale. This grid is widely used for the Flora-Fauna-Habitat reporting by the European Union (EU) and can be downloaded at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/eea-reference-grids-2 

The map encompasses the EU countries plus the non-EU Balkan states, Switzerland, Norway, and the Carpathian region of Ukraine. Presence in a grid cell was ideally mapped based on carnivore presence and frequency in a cell resulting in:

1 = Permanent (presence confirmed in >= 3 years in the last 5 years OR in >50% of the time OR reproduction confirmed within the last 3 years)
3 = Sporadic (highly fluctuating presence) (presence confirmed in <3 years in the last 5 years OR in <50% of the time)
We subsequently include: i) the category “present” when there is no doubt about the species presence in the country, but where additional information is missing & ii) the category “presence uncertain” where evidence is weak that large carnivore presence consists of more than very rare vagrants

Where grid cells have portions in more than one country and cells were assigned different values in neighbouring countries; the “disputed” cell was always given the “higher” presence value; that is a cell categorized as “sporadic” by one and “permanent” by the country was categorized as “permanent”.

To assess the quality of carnivore signs we used the SCALP criteria developed for the standardized monitoring of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the Alps (Molinari-Jobin et al. 2012):

Category 1 (C1): “Hard facts”, verified and unchallenged large carnivore presence signs (e.g. dead animals, DNA, verified camera trap images);
Category 2 (C2): Large carnivore presence signs controlled and confirmed by a large carnivore expert (e.g. trained member of the network), which requires documentation of large carnivore signs; and
Category 3 (C3): Unconfirmed category 2 large carnivore presence signs and all presence signs such as sightings and calls which, if not additionally documented, cannot be verified
We subsequently include the category “soft” which refers to presence large carnivore presence based on interview, questionnaires, and media coverage

For additional details please also see the attached pdf files for each of the species datasets.

物种现状的定期评估是保护规划与适应性管理的核心组成部分。此类评估既可用于评估既往或正在实施的保护行动进展，也可为调整保护策略、确定未来保护行动优先级提供依据。多数国家会针对本国适应性管理流程或国家红色名录开展定期评估。此外，根据《生境指令》（Habitats Directive）第17条的义务要求，欧盟成员国需每6年报告一次该指令附录所列全部物种的生存现状。但此类国家级评估往往采用非标准化流程，且无法始终如一地反映生态意义上有效评估所需的生物学单元（即种群）。

自21世纪初以来，欧洲大型食肉动物倡议（Large Carnivore Initiative for Europe, LCIE，隶属于世界自然保护联盟物种生存委员会专家小组）一直协调开展全欧范围的大型食肉动物现状定期调查（如von Arx等2004年、Salvatori与Linnell 2005年、Kaczensky等2013年的研究），调查对象涵盖欧亚猞猁（Lynx lynx）、灰狼（Canis lupus）、棕熊（Ursus arctos）与狼獾（Gulo gulo）。此类调查依托当前可获取的顶尖专家资源与信息数据源开展。尽管欧洲各地的基础数据质量与野外调查方法差异显著，但该协调评估团队仍尽力以可比方式整合异质性数据，并公开呈现差异。同时，评估团队力求在最具生态学意义的尺度上开展评估，包括大陆尺度（除俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦以及乌克兰喀尔巴阡山脉以外区域外的所有欧洲国家）、欧盟28国尺度（《生境指令》实施范围）以及反映生态过程运作尺度的生物学种群尺度（Linnell等2008年）。借此，独立开展的LCIE评估可为持续进行的国家级评估提供宝贵补充。

本团队上一轮评估覆盖2006-2011年时段（Kaczensky等2013年；Chapron等2014年）。本次评估主要基于2012-2016年的数据，整体沿用了相同的评估方法。本报告所用的种群定义大体遵循Linnell等（2008年）提出、Kaczensky等（2013年）详述的框架。由于该定义初衷即为动态调整，本次评估仅做了少量微调：一是将哈尔茨山区的欧亚猞猁种群升级为正式种群（此前仅被视为“偶见分布”）；二是因西班牙南部塞拉莫雷纳山区的灰狼已区域性灭绝，将其从评估范围中移除。

有关大型食肉动物现状评估的更多相关信息可参阅其他报告：例如Linnell与Cretois（2018年）汇总了大型食肉动物捕食家畜的相关数据，Linnell（2013年）梳理了大型食肉动物恢复过程中引发的社会冲突相关资料，Boitani等（2015年）则总结了应对欧洲大型食肉动物主要威胁所需的关键保护行动。

### 参考文献
1. Boitani, L., F. Alvarez, O. Anders, H. Andren, E. Avanzinelli, V. Balys, J. C. Blanco, U. Breitenmoser, G. Chapron, P. Ciucci, A. Dutsov, C. Groff, D. Huber, O. Ionescu, F. Knauer, I. Kojola, J. Kubala, M. Kutal, J. Linnell, A. Majic, P. Mannil, R. Manz, F. Marucco, D. Melovski, A. Molinari, H. Norberg, S. Nowak, J. Ozolins, S. Palazon, H. Potocnik, P.-Y. Quenette, I. Reinhardt, R. Rigg, N. Selva, A. Sergiel, M. Shkvyria, J. Swenson, A. Trajce, M. Von Arx, M. Wolfl, U. Wotschikowsky, D. Zlatanova, 2015. Key actions for Large Carnivore populations in Europe. 意大利罗马应用生态研究所（Institute of Applied Ecology, Rome, Italy）. 提交给欧盟环境总局的报告，布鲁塞尔. 合同编号：07.0307/2013/654446/SER/B3
2. Chapron, G., Kaczensky, P., Linnell, J.D.C., von Arx, M., Huber, D., Andrén, H., López-Bao, J.V., Adamec, M., Álvares, F., Anders, O., Balčiauskas, L., Balys, V., Bedő, P., Bego, F., Blanco, J.C., Breitenmoser, U., Brøseth, H., Bufka, L., Bunikyte, R., Ciucci, P., Dutsov, A., Engleder, T., Fuxjäger, C., Groff, C., Holmala, K., Hoxha, B., Iliopoulos, Y., Ionescu, O., Jeremić, J., Jerina, K., Kluth, G., Knauer, F., Kojola, I., Kos, I., Krofel, M., Kubala, J., Kunovac, S., Kusak, J., Kutal, M., Liberg, O., Majić, A., Männil, P., Manz, R., Marboutin, E., Marucco, F., Melovski, D., Mersini, K., Mertzanis, Y., Mysłajek, R.W., Nowak, S., Odden, J., Ozolins, J., Palomero, G., Paunović, M., Persson, J., Potočnik, H., Quenette, P.-Y., Rauer, G., Reinhardt, I., Rigg, R., Ryser, A., Salvatori, V., Skrbinšek, T., Stojanov, A., Swenson, J.E., Szemethy, L., Trajçe, A., Tsingarska[1]Sedefcheva, E., Váňa, M., Veeroja, R., Wabakken, P., Wölfl, M., Wölfl, S., Zimmermann, F., Zlatanova, D. & Boitani, L. 2014. Recovery of large carnivores in Europe’s modern human-dominated landscapes. 《科学》（Science）346(6216): 1517-1519.
3. Kaczensky, P., Chapron, G., Von Arx, M., Huber, D., Andrén, H. & Linnell, J. 2013. Status, management and distribution of large carnivores - bear, lynx, wolf and wolverine - in Europe. Istituto di Ecologia Applicata, Rome, Italy.
4. Linnell, J.D.C., Cretois, B., 2018. Research for AGRI Committee – The revival of wolves and other large predators and its impact on farmers and their livelihood in rural regions of Europe. 欧洲议会结构与凝聚政策部，布鲁塞尔.
5. Linnell, J.D.C. 2013. From conflict to coexistence: insights from multi-disciplinary research into the relationships between people, large carnivores and institutions. Istituto di Ecologia Applicata, Rome.
6. Linnell, J.D.C., Salvatori, V. & Boitani, L. 2008. Guidelines for population level management plans for large carnivores in Europe. A Large Carnivore Initiative for Europe report prepared for the European Commission (contract 070501/2005/424162/MAR/B2).
7. Salvatori, V. & Linnell, J.D.C. 2005. Report on the conservation status and threats for wolf (Canis lupus) in Europe. Council of Europe Report T-PVS/Inf (2005) 16.
8. von Arx, M., Breitenmoser-Würsten, C., Zimmermann, F. & Breitenmoser, U. 2004. Status and conservation of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Europe in 2001. KORA Report 19e: 1- 330.

### 方法
本制图方法沿用Chapron等（2014年）与Kaczensky等（2013年）所述的流程，并将已发布的物种在线图层（Species Online Layers, SPOIS）更新至2012-2016年时段。

简言之，本研究以10×10 km的ETRS89-LAEA欧洲网格为尺度绘制大型食肉动物分布点位。该网格广泛应用于欧盟的《植物-动物-生境》报告流程，可从以下网址下载：http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/eea-reference-grids-2

本次制图覆盖欧盟成员国、非欧盟巴尔干国家、瑞士、挪威以及乌克兰喀尔巴阡山区。理想情况下，网格单元内的物种存在情况需基于该单元内的食肉动物观测记录与出现频率判定，具体分类如下：
1. 1级（永久分布）：近5年内有≥3年确认存在该物种，或观测时长占比＞50%，或近3年内确认有繁殖行为；
2. 3级（偶见分布）：出现频率波动极大，近5年内确认存在时长＜3年，或观测时长占比＜50%

后续补充两类分类：①“确认存在”：该国境内毫无疑问存在该物种，但缺乏详细补充信息；②“存在存疑”：仅能证明存在极个别游荡个体，其余疑似存在的证据强度不足。

若某网格单元跨越多个国家，且相邻国家对该单元的分布等级判定存在差异，则以“更高等级”作为最终分类：例如某单元被一国判定为“偶见分布”，被另一国判定为“永久分布”，则最终分类为“永久分布”。

为评估食肉动物观测痕迹的可信度，本研究采用了为阿尔卑斯山区欧亚猞猁（Lynx lynx）标准化监测制定的SCALP标准（Molinari-Jobin等2012年）：
1. 1级（C1）：“硬证据”，经核实且无争议的大型食肉动物痕迹（如死亡个体、DNA样本、经确认的红外相机影像）；
2. 2级（C2）：经大型食肉动物专家（如经过培训的网络成员）核查确认的痕迹，需附带大型食肉动物痕迹的佐证文档；
3. 3级（C3）：未完成C2级核查的痕迹，以及所有无法通过额外文档验证的观测记录（如目击报告、叫声记录）

此外补充“软证据”分类，指基于访谈、问卷或媒体报道得出的物种存在记录。

如需获取更多细节，请参阅各物种种群数据集附带的PDF文档。