Flexibilization or biomethane upgrading? Investment preference of German biogas plant operators for the follow-up of guaranteed feed-in tariffs

This dataset reports the results of a discrete choice experiment with 183
German biogas plant operators designed to elicit the respondents’ plans
for biogas utilization pathways after the end of guaranteed feed-in
tariffs. Participants could choose between ‘flexibilization’ for
demand-based electricity generation and conversion to biomethane upgrading
for direct feed-in into the natural gas grid. A binomial logit model
revealed a 37% probability of switching to biomethane upgrading. These
plants are characterized by higher capacities, several involved
shareholders, secured succession, costly digestate disposal and belonging
to the upper performance quartile. Mixed logit estimations conducted
separately for the two investment concepts revealed a very high overall
willingness to invest: 71% for flexibilization and 82% for biomethane
upgrading. The respondents demand a return on investment of 19% for
flexibilization and 26% for biomethane upgrading. Within the
flexibilization, twofold overbuilding (installed capacity equals 2 times
the rated power) is clearly preferred to fivefold overbuilding. For the
biomethane upgrading, private ownership of the upgrading plant is
preferred to a joint investment in a central upgrading facility. Limiting
the use of energy crops reduces the propensity to invest in both models,
while a longer utilization period enhances it. The respondents consider
lack of planning reliability as the biggest obstacle to invest, followed
by long approval procedures and high investment costs due to restrictive
legal requirements.

本数据集报告了一项针对183名德国沼气厂运营商（biogas plant operators）的离散选择实验（discrete choice experiment）结果，旨在探究上网电价补贴（guaranteed feed-in tariffs）结束后受访者的沼气利用路径规划。参与者可在两种方案中选择：一是面向基于需求的发电（demand-based electricity generation）的“灵活化”（flexibilization），二是转换为生物甲烷提纯（biomethane upgrading）以直接输入天然气网（natural gas grid）。二项logit模型（binomial logit model）显示，转向生物甲烷提纯的概率为37%；这些工厂具有更高产能、涉及多个股东、继承有保障、消化物处理成本高昂且属于性能上四分位区间等特征。针对两种投资概念分别进行的混合logit估计（mixed logit estimations）显示，整体投资意愿极高：灵活化方案为71%，生物甲烷提纯方案为82%。受访者对灵活化方案要求19%的投资回报率（return on investment），对生物甲烷提纯方案要求26%的投资回报率。在灵活化方案中，两倍超建（装机容量等于额定功率的两倍）明显优于五倍超建；在生物甲烷提纯方案中，私人拥有提纯厂比联合投资中央提纯设施更受青睐。限制能源作物的使用会降低两种模型的投资倾向，而更长的使用周期则会提升该倾向。受访者认为，规划可靠性不足是投资的最大障碍，其次是审批流程冗长以及严格法规要求导致的高投资成本。