The Citius End: World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest

World records (WR) in sports illustrate the ultimate expression of human integrated muscle biology, through speed or strength performances. Analysis and prediction of man's physiological boundaries in sports and impact of external (historical or environmental) conditions on WR occurrence are subject to scientific controversy. Based on the analysis of 3263 WR established for all quantifiable official contests since the first Olympic Games, we show here that WR progression rate follows a piecewise exponential decaying pattern with very high accuracy (mean adjusted r2 values = 0.91±0.08 (s.d.)). Starting at 75% of their estimated asymptotic values in 1896, WR have now reached 99%, and, present conditions prevailing, half of all WR will not be improved by more than 0,05% in 2027. Our model, which may be used to compare future athletic performances or assess the impact of international antidoping policies, forecasts that human species' physiological frontiers will be reached in one generation. This will have an impact on the future conditions of athlete training and on the organization of competitions. It may also alter the Olympic motto and spirit.

体育世界纪录（World Records, WR）通过速度与力量类赛事的竞技表现，诠释了人类肌肉整合生理机能的巅峰状态。针对体育运动中人类生理极限的分析与预测，以及外部（历史或环境）条件对世界纪录产生的影响，始终存在科学争议。本研究基于首届现代奥林匹克运动会以来所有可量化官方赛事中诞生的3263项世界纪录的分析，证实世界纪录的提升速率呈现高精度的分段指数衰减模式，平均调整决定系数R²为0.91±0.08（标准差s.d.）。1896年时，世界纪录的表现已达到其估计渐近值的75%，而如今这一比例已升至99%；在当前普遍条件下，到2027年，半数世界纪录的提升幅度将不会超过0.05%。本研究提出的模型可用于对比未来竞技体育表现，或评估国际反兴奋剂政策的影响，该模型预测，人类的生理极限将在一代人的时间内被触及。这一趋势将对未来运动员的训练模式以及赛事组织体系产生深远影响，甚至可能改变奥林匹克格言与精神内核。