Pairwise correlations.

On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted to leave the European Union. The period leading up to the referendum was characterized by a significant volume of misinformation and disinformation. Existing literature has established the importance of cognitive ability in processing and discounting (mis/dis) information in decision making. We use a dataset of couples within households from a nationally representative UK survey to investigate the relationship between cognitive ability and the propensity to vote Leave / Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership. We find that a one standard deviation increase in cognitive ability, all else being equal, increases the likelihood of a Remain vote by 9.7%. Similarly, we find that an increase in partner’s cognitive ability further increases the respondent’s likelihood of a Remain vote (7.6%). In a final test, restricting our analysis to couples who voted in a conflicting manner, we find that having a cognitive ability advantage over one’s partner increases the likelihood of voting Remain (10.9%). An important question then becomes how to improve individual and household decision making in the face of increasing amounts of (mis/dis) information.

2016年6月23日，英国就欧洲联盟成员资格举行全民公投，最终投票决定脱离欧盟。公投筹备阶段弥漫着大量虚假与误导性信息。现有学术文献已证实，认知能力在个体处理、甄别并排除（虚假/误导）信息并开展决策的过程中扮演着关键角色。本研究依托一项具有全国代表性的英国调查获取的家庭伴侣数据集，探究认知能力与2016年英国脱欧公投中，受访者投票脱欧（Leave）或留欧（Remain）的倾向之间的关联。研究结果显示，在其他条件均保持不变的情况下，受访者自身认知能力每提升一个标准差，其投留欧票的概率将提高9.7%。类似地，伴侣的认知能力提升也会进一步提高受访者投留欧票的概率，提升幅度为7.6%。在最终的检验环节中，我们将分析样本限定为投票立场相悖的情侣群体，结果发现，相较于伴侣具备认知能力优势的受访者，其投留欧票的概率将提升10.9%。面对日益泛滥的（虚假/误导）信息，如何优化个体与家庭的决策质量，成为一个亟待探讨的重要议题。