Root Mean Square Difference between the nine ensemble member change anomalies of the annual total rainfall for the 10% percentile for 2036-2065 relative to 1976-2005, under the RCP 4.5 pathway

Root Mean Square Difference for Annual total rainfall (mm per year) change from the 10% percentile projected for 2036-2065, relative to present (1976 - 2005), under the RCP 4.5 pathway for the southern African region. To generate the image, nine coarse General Circulation Models (GCM) are downscaled to a finer spatial resolution (0.44°x 0.44°) using the Rossby Centre regional model (RCA4) forcing its lateral boundaries. The model simulated daily rainfall averages, which are used to generate projections of annual change. The projections are generated using the medium to low (RCP4.5) pathway which associates CO2 concentrations of approximately 560ppm by the year 2100. The associated RMSD it calculated and shows the uncertainty range of the projected model simulated residual values, and gives a relative perspective of spatial areas associated with higher and lower projection uncertainties.

南部非洲地区在RCP4.5路径下，2036-2065年相对于当前（1976-2005年）的年总降雨量（毫米/年）变化的10%百分位数的均方根差（Root Mean Square Difference，RMSD）。为生成该图像，九个粗分辨率全球环流模型（General Circulation Models，GCM）通过Rossby中心区域模型（RCA4）强迫其侧边界，被降尺度至更精细的空间分辨率（0.44°×0.44°）。模型模拟的日降雨量平均值用于生成年度变化的预测结果。这些预测基于中低排放路径RCP4.5生成，该路径预计到2100年二氧化碳浓度约为560ppm。计算得到的RMSD显示了预测模型模拟残差的不确定性范围，并提供了与高、低预测不确定性相关的空间区域的相对视角。