Variation in the number of occupied wasp nests (all species pooled).

* = number of trees with wasp nests;** = number of wasp nests along the same perimeter. The data were obtained before and after the 1998–2000 ENSO event in the Saint Elie plantation and forest edges all around (Sinnamary district). Statistical comparisons. (1) Friedman Chi-square test = 8.3333, df = 3, P = 0.0396. (2) GLM Poisson model: the intercept corresponds to the effect ‘year Dec 06’ and the ‘trees of the forest edge’. The effect of grapefruit trees and A. sciophilum is significant as well as that of the year Dec 92 at Ppost-hoc test: the number of wasp nests recorded during the Dec 92 survey is significantly different from that of the three other years (Dec 06, Dec 07, and Dec 10) at Pt = a * Nt-1 * ε, assuming a = 1, the passage from 121 wasp nests in 1992 to 11 wasp nests in 2006 has a probability of 0.0355. It is therefore unlikely that this passage was due to demographic stochasticity only.

* = 带有黄蜂巢的树木数量；** = 同一周边范围内的黄蜂巢数量。本数据集采集自圣埃利（Saint Elie）种植园及其周边所有林缘（锡纳马里（Sinnamary）区）1998-2000年厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件发生前后的样本。统计分析如下：(1) 弗里德曼卡方检验（Friedman Chi-square test）值为8.3333，自由度(df)为3，P值为0.0396。(2) 广义线性模型泊松回归（GLM Poisson model）：截距项对应“2006年12月”与“林缘树木”的效应；葡萄柚树（grapefruit trees）、A. sciophilum以及1992年12月的年份效应均显著。事后检验（post-hoc test）结果显示：1992年12月调查记录的黄蜂巢数量，与其余三个年份（2006年12月、2007年12月及2010年12月）的记录值存在显著差异。依据公式Pt = a * Nt-1 * ε，在a=1的假设条件下，黄蜂巢数量从1992年的121个降至2006年的11个的概率为0.0355，因此该数量变化不太可能仅由种群统计随机性（demographic stochasticity）单独导致。