Data Sheet 1_Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis due to smoking, 1990-2021: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study.xlsx

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis invading the lungs and other organs, which is a serious threat to human life and health. Recent studies have shown that smoking is an important risk factor for the development of TB and advances the progression of TB through multiple mechanisms that affect the body’s immune function.
MethodsA multidimensional analytical approach was taken to gain a comprehensive understanding of the burden of disease. First, the burden of TB due to smoking (Deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs) from 1990–2021 was conducted. And then, differences in the burden of disease in 2021 were explored across gender, age, SDI regions, GBD regions and countries. In addition, decomposition analysis was performed to understand the influencing factors of disease burden. Finally, ARIMA and ES models were used to predict trends in disease burden from 2022-2050.
ResultsGlobally, the number of cases and ASR of TB due to smoking have decreased over time. The burden of disease is heaviest in the middle-aged male population and is much higher than in women. The burden is higher in regions with lower levels of SDI than in those with higher levels of SDI. Australasia has the lowest burden, while India is the country with the highest burden. Projections show a general downward trend in the number of disease burdens from 2022 to 2050, but there is still a need to develop the right strategies to meet the challenges of disease.
ConclusionsSmoking as an independent risk factor for several chronic diseases, this study focuses on the burden of TB due to smoking. Although the results show that the burden situation is decreasing year by year, the state and society still need to increase the publicity of science, raise the awareness of the disease among the public, and develop public health programs to deal with the disease.

背景：肺结核（Tuberculosis, TB）是由结核分枝杆菌侵袭肺部及其他脏器引发的传染性疾病，严重威胁人类生命健康。近期研究表明，吸烟是肺结核发病的重要危险因素，并可通过多种影响机体免疫功能的机制加速肺结核的病情进展。
方法：本研究采用多维分析方法以全面解析疾病负担。首先，核算了1990年至2021年间吸烟相关肺结核的疾病负担（包括死亡数、伤残调整生命年（Disability-Adjusted Life Years, DALYs）、伤残损失健康生命年（Years Lived with Disability, YLDs）以及早死损失生命年（Years of Life Lost, YLLs））。随后，探究了2021年不同性别、年龄组、社会人口指数（Social Demographic Index, SDI）区域、全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease, GBD）分区及国家间的疾病负担差异。此外，通过分解分析明确疾病负担的影响因素。最后，采用自回归整合移动平均（AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA）模型与指数平滑（Exponential Smoothing, ES）模型对2022年至2050年的疾病负担趋势进行预测。
结果：全球范围内，吸烟相关肺结核的病例数与年龄标化率（Age-Standardized Rate, ASR）随时间呈下降趋势。疾病负担在中年男性人群中最为沉重，且显著高于女性群体。社会人口指数（SDI）较低区域的疾病负担高于SDI较高区域。澳大拉西亚（Australasia）地区的疾病负担最低，而印度则为疾病负担最高的国家。预测结果显示，2022年至2050年疾病负担整体呈下降趋势，但仍需制定针对性策略以应对该疾病带来的挑战。
结论：吸烟作为多种慢性疾病的独立危险因素，本研究聚焦于吸烟相关肺结核的疾病负担。尽管研究结果显示疾病负担逐年降低，但国家与社会仍需加强科学宣传，提升公众对该疾病的认知，并制定公共卫生方案以应对相关疾病挑战。