Fear of death and polarization: political consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract Humanity has always been tormented with the end of existence. On some occasions, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, this affliction is pronounced. To what extent can fear of death alter individuals’ political perceptions and beliefs? It is in this context of uncertainties and fears that we investigate how Brazilian society has been evaluating its leaders, especially concerning the policy of social distancing. The COVID-19 pandemic changed the axes of political polarization. On the one hand, governors, mayors, and legislators are concerned about the risks of a collapse of the health system. On the other, President Jair Bolsonaro focused primarily on the negative economic consequences of the pandemic. Through an opinion poll, we identified that “fear of death” diminished the ideological polarization that has existed in Brazil since Jair Bolsonaro’s election. Contrary to what many expected, voters who identified themselves as right-wing and center-right - supposedly, the core of Bolsonaro’s voters - refused to follow the president’s recommendation of relaxing social distancing policies and considered his performance inappropriate during the pandemic. We also show that different income levels did not influence this change in behavior.

摘要 人类始终为存在的终结所困扰。在某些情境下，比如当下的新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）大流行期间，这种痛苦显得尤为凸显。死亡恐惧能在多大程度上改变个体的政治认知与信念？正是在这种充满不确定性与恐惧的背景下，我们探究巴西社会如何对本国领导人进行评价，尤其是在社交疏离政策方面。新冠大流行重塑了政治极化的核心维度。一方面，各州州长、市长及议员均担忧医疗系统崩溃的风险；另一方面，雅伊尔·博索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）总统则主要关注大流行带来的负面经济后果。我们通过一项民意调查发现，"死亡恐惧"削弱了自博索纳罗当选以来巴西社会一直存在的意识形态极化现象。与诸多预期相悖的是，那些自认为属于右翼及中右翼的选民——据信是博索纳罗支持者的核心群体——拒绝遵从总统放松社交疏离政策的提议，并认为其在大流行期间的履职表现失当。此外我们还证实，不同收入水平并未对这种行为转变产生影响。