Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.

当前关于气候变化导致物种灭绝风险的预测存在很大差异，这取决于每项研究的具体假设、地理范围和分类学焦点。我综合了已发表的研究，以估算全球平均灭绝率，并确定哪些因素对气候变化引发的灭绝风险造成了最大的不确定性。结果表明，灭绝风险将随未来全球气温升高而加速上升，在当前政策下，多达六分之一的物种将面临威胁。灭绝风险在南美洲、澳大利亚和新西兰最高，且风险在不同分类群之间没有差异。关于灭绝债务（extinction debt）和扩散能力的现实假设显著增加了灭绝风险。若要避免全球物种灭绝加速，我们亟需采取策略限制进一步的气候变化。