Table_1_Analysis and prediction of improved SEIR transmission dynamics model: taking the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy as an example.XLS

This study aimed to predict the transmission trajectory of the 2019 Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) and analyze the impact of preventive measures on the spread of the epidemic. Considering that tracking a long-term epidemic trajectory requires explanatory modeling with more complexities than short-term predictions, an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) transmission dynamic model is established. The model depends on defining various parameters that describe both the virus and the population under study. However, it is likely that several of these parameters will exhibit significant variations among different states. Therefore, regression algorithms and heuristic algorithms were developed to effectively adapt the population–dependent parameters and ensure accurate fitting of the SEIR model to data for any specific state. In this study, we consider the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy as a case study, which occurred in August 2020. We divide the epidemic data from February to September of the same year into two distinct stages for analysis. The numerical results demonstrate that the improved SEIR model effectively simulates and predicts the transmission trajectories of the Italian epidemic during both periods before and after the second outbreak. By analyzing the impact of anti-epidemic measures on the spread of the disease, our findings emphasize the significance of implementing anti-epidemic preventive measures in COVID-19 modeling.

本研究旨在预测2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的传播轨迹，并剖析防疫措施对疫情传播的影响。鉴于追踪长期疫情轨迹相较于短期预测，需构建复杂度更高的解释性模型，本研究搭建了改进型易感-暴露-感染-移除（Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed, SEIR）传播动力学模型。该模型需定义一系列用以描述研究对象中病毒特性与人群特征的参数，但上述诸多参数在不同区域间可能存在显著差异。为此，本研究开发了回归算法与启发式算法，以有效适配依赖于人群的参数，确保SEIR模型可针对任意特定区域精准拟合实测数据。本研究以2020年8月暴发的意大利第二波COVID-19疫情为案例研究对象，将同年2月至9月的疫情数据划分为两个截然不同的阶段开展分析。数值仿真结果表明，改进型SEIR模型可有效模拟并预测该意大利疫情在第二波暴发前后两个阶段的传播轨迹。通过分析防疫措施对疾病传播的影响，本研究结果凸显了在COVID-19传播建模中落实防疫预防措施的重要意义。