Climate vulnerability of irrigation systems in the Upper Indus Basin: insights from three Karakoram villages in northern Pakistan

The traditional irrigation systems in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are frequently disrupted by climate-induced hazards, affecting irrigated agriculture – one of the major livelihood sources in the region. The recent scholarship lacks systematic data on various aspects that make the mountain irrigation systems susceptible to climate variabilities. Therefore, we investigated the climate vulnerability of irrigations systems at selected sites of the UIB, using a tailored ‘multidimensional indices’ approach. The sites represented a cross-section of socio-hydrological and physiographic attributes. The data on multiple dimensions of vulnerability and corresponding indicators were acquired through household surveys, using a semi-structured questionnaire. The findings revealed a ‘medium-high’ level of vulnerability of irrigation systems, which is a great concern, given the fragility of the mountainous ecosystems. Overall, the level of vulnerably didn’t vary across the sites, presumably due to physiographic and socio-cultural similarities, however, the various dimensions of vulnerability differed across the sites. The study concludes that appropriate adaptation measures are necessary to reduce the vulnerability of irrigation systems, especially by enhancing institutional resilience. This can be achieved by building capacities of local institutions and enhancing government’s financial, technical, and policy support for local communities in maintaining the traditional irrigation systems under the changing climatic conditions.

印度河上游流域（Upper Indus Basin, UIB）的传统灌溉系统常受气候诱发灾害干扰，对该地区核心生计来源之一的灌溉农业造成负面影响。当前学界尚未针对山地灌溉系统易受气候变率影响的各类维度形成系统性数据积累。为此，本研究采用定制化「多维指数」方法，对印度河上游流域选定的多个点位开展灌溉系统气候脆弱性评估。所选点位覆盖了社会水文与自然地理属性的典型剖面。本研究通过半结构化问卷开展入户调查，获取了脆弱性多维度及其对应指标的相关数据。研究结果显示，灌溉系统整体处于「中高」脆弱性水平，鉴于山地生态系统的天然脆弱性，这一现状亟待重视。整体而言，各点位的脆弱性水平并无显著差异，推测这源于其自然地理与社会文化属性的相似性；但各维度的脆弱性水平在不同点位间存在明显分化。本研究得出结论：需采取恰当的适应措施以降低灌溉系统的脆弱性，尤其应通过提升制度韧性来实现目标。具体可通过强化地方机构的能力建设，以及加大政府在气候变化背景下为当地社区维护传统灌溉系统提供的资金、技术与政策支持来达成。