Observation consistent warming projections for 2081-2100 from the WASP model for the RCP4.5 scenario, and the corresponding earth system properties.

This dataset contains model data from a large ensemble of 32,615 simulations of an efficient Earth system model; the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector, WASP. The results were generated following historic forcing from year 1765 to 2005, followed by the RCP4.5 scenario until year 2100. The WASP model was run 100 million times with different combinations of input parameters using a Monte Carlo approach. Each of these intitial 100 million simulations was tested against observational reconstructions of historic warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake. The 32,615 simulations that matched the historic observations were extracted and form this dataset. The data provides projected global mean surface warming above preindustrial during the period 2081-2100, the simulated historic constraints used to extract the simulations (warming, ocean heat uptake and carbon fluxes over set time intervals), and the corresponding Earth system properties for each of the 32,615 historic consistent WASP model simulations. This dataset was collected as part of a joint Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and UK Government Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) grant reference NE/P01495X/1 - ADJUST1.5, and a NERC standard grant reference NE/N009789/1 - Mechanistic controls of surface warming by ocean heat and carbon uptake.

本数据集包含由高效地球系统模型‘变暖、酸化与海平面预测器（Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector, WASP）’生成的32,615次模拟组成的大型集合模型数据。模拟结果的生成遵循1765年至2005年的历史强迫，随后采用RCP4.5情景直至2100年。研究人员采用蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）方法，对WASP模型进行了1亿次输入参数组合各异的模拟运行。这1亿次初始模拟中的每一次均通过历史变暖、热量吸收及碳吸收的观测重建数据进行验证。其中与历史观测数据匹配的32,615次模拟被筛选出来，构成了本数据集。数据集包含以下内容：2081-2100年期间工业化前水平以上的全球平均地表变暖预测值；用于筛选模拟的历史约束模拟数据（特定时间区间内的变暖、海洋热量吸收及碳通量）；以及32,615次与历史数据一致的WASP模型模拟各自对应的地球系统属性。本数据集的采集是自然环境研究委员会（Natural Environment Research Council, NERC）与英国政府商业、能源及工业战略部（Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, BEIS）联合资助项目（编号NE/P01495X/1 - ADJUST1.5），以及NERC标准资助项目（编号NE/N009789/1 - 海洋热量与碳吸收对地表变暖的机制控制）的一部分。