ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SOME AGROTECHNICAL FACTORS IN MAIZE PRODUCTION. A HUNGARIAN CASE STUDY

This paper focuses on the economic and statistical evaluation of the production technology findings of the polyfactorial maize production experiments carried out between 2015-2017 at the Látókép Experiment Site of the University of Debrecen, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management. The examined agrotechnical factors included irrigation, previous crop, tillage, crop density, hybrid and N nutrient supply, while the effect of different crop years was taken into consideration. In addition to descriptive statistical methods, we used multivariate regression analysis during the statistical evaluation. In the course of the evaluation, we examined three models that differed in terms of tillage methods and the consideration of crop year. In our best fit model, the factors were 71% responsible for the change in yield value. We carried out efficiency and comparative analyses in the course of the economic evaluation. Averaged over the three examined years, it can be stated that nutrient supply and crop year had an outstanding effect on yield, while irrigation had a minimal effect. However, global warming may justify irrigation in the future, not only from a biological point of view, but also from an economic aspect. Ideal tillage is also greatly affected by crop year, too. Altogether, of the examined tillage systems, subsoiling proved to be the best from an economic point of view. Our investigations confirm that it is better to perform intensive farming under more favourable market conditions. The optimum of N fertilisation is probably outside of the range we examined, if the extreme changes in maize and fertiliser prices are ignored.

本文聚焦于2015-2017年在德布勒森大学（University of Debrecen）农业与食品科学及环境管理学院Látókép实验站开展的多因素玉米生产试验中生产技术研究结果的经济与统计评估。所考察的农艺因素包括灌溉、前茬作物、耕作方式、种植密度、杂交品种及氮素供应，同时考虑了不同作物年度的影响。统计评估中，除描述性统计方法外，还采用了多元回归分析。评估过程中，我们考察了三种模型，其差异在于耕作方式及是否纳入作物年度因素。在拟合效果最佳的模型中，这些因素对产量变化的解释率为71%。经济评估过程中，我们开展了效率分析与比较分析。综合三年考察数据可知，养分供应与作物年度对产量影响显著，而灌溉的影响极小。然而，全球变暖可能使未来灌溉具备合理性——不仅从生物学角度，也从经济学角度而言。理想耕作方式同样受作物年度影响显著。总体而言，在所考察的耕作体系中，深松耕作从经济角度被证明是最优选择。研究证实，在更有利的市场条件下开展集约农业更为适宜。若忽略玉米与肥料价格的极端波动，氮肥施用的最优水平可能超出我们所考察的范围。