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The evolution of the automobile market is a macro-expression of the behavior of automakers’ production decisions. This study examines the competitive environment between new energy vehicles (NEVs) and conventional fuel vehicles (CFVs) and develops a game-theoretical model incorporating consumer utility, automaker profit, and the competitive density of NEVs and CFVs. It aims to assess how consumers’ preferences for vehicle range and smart features influence automakers’ strategic decisions and the broader market evolution under the Dual Credit Policy. The findings indicate: (1) A low NEV credit price facilitates NEV market size growth, but this growth rate diminishes beyond a certain price threshold; (2) The lower the consumer’s range preference, the higher NEV credit price can accelerate the development of new energy vehicles to their saturation value. However, when consumers in the market prioritize smart features, increasing the NEV credit price does not significantly influence the growth of NEV market size. (3) Higher consumer preferences for both range and smart features, combined with increased NEV credit prices, can synergistically accelerate the speed of the NEV market to reach the saturation value and also raise the saturation value of the scale of NEVs. And higher consumer range preference combined with increased NEV credit prices has a more significant effect on the promotion of NEV market size than the combined effect of higher consumer smart preference and increased NEV credit prices. The actual data of China’s automobile market is used in the simulation of this model. The model and its simulation results effectively explain and reveal the evolutionary impacts of consumers’ range and smart feature preference on the promotion of China’s NEVs under the Dual Credit Policy to provide effective technological and theoretical support for the promotion of the sustainable development of China’s NEV industry.

汽车市场的演化是汽车制造商生产决策行为的宏观体现。本研究聚焦新能源汽车（new energy vehicles, NEVs）与传统燃油汽车（conventional fuel vehicles, CFVs）的竞争格局，构建了融合消费者效用、车企利润以及两类车型竞争密度的博弈论模型，旨在评估双积分政策（Dual Credit Policy）框架下，消费者对车辆续航里程与智能配置的偏好如何影响车企战略决策与整体市场演化。研究结果显示：（1）较低的新能源汽车积分价格有助于扩大新能源汽车市场规模，但当积分价格突破某一阈值后，市场规模的增速会出现放缓；（2）消费者对续航里程的偏好越低，提高新能源汽车积分价格越能加速新能源汽车市场向饱和值发展；但当市场消费者更侧重智能配置时，提升新能源汽车积分价格对新能源汽车市场规模的增长无显著影响；（3）当消费者对续航里程与智能配置的偏好均较高，且新能源汽车积分价格提升时，二者可协同加速新能源汽车市场达到饱和值的速度，同时提升新能源汽车市场规模的饱和值；且相较于消费者智能配置偏好提升与积分价格上涨的组合效应，消费者续航里程偏好提升与积分价格上涨的组合对新能源汽车市场规模的促进效果更为显著。本模型的仿真模拟采用中国汽车市场的实际数据，该模型及其仿真结果有效阐释并揭示了双积分政策框架下，消费者续航里程与智能配置偏好对中国新能源汽车推广的演化影响，可为推动中国新能源汽车产业的可持续发展提供可靠的技术与理论支撑。