Industry Aggregation and Assessment of State Economic Development from Motion Picture and Television Production Incentives

Studies of the economics of state tax incentives for the motion picture and television industry use differing levels of industry aggregation. This study examines aggregate sector input-output multipliers for 48 states for the motion picture and television industry and shows how the aggregate multipliers may be inaccurate for most states. We conclude that the sub-category Motion Picture and Video Production (NAICS code 51211) most corresponds to the incentivized activity in the industry and the multipliers used in economic impact analyses of state film incentives need to reflect its presence within the aggregate sector. We conduct a hypothetical case study of Oklahoma, a state with little presence of NAICS 51211, using multipliers for the key film incentive states of Louisiana and New Mexico, two states with a large presence of NAICS 51211. The usefulness of the input-output employment multipliers for Louisiana and New Mexico are confirmed based on both cross-sectional correlations and time-series evidence obtained from a difference-in-difference approach.

关于州级税收激励对影视行业经济影响的研究，采用了不同层次的行业聚合方法。本研究分析了美国48个州影视行业的全行业投入产出乘数（input-output multipliers），并揭示了为何这种全行业乘数对多数州而言可能存在偏差。研究结论表明，“电影和视频制作”子类别（Motion Picture and Video Production，北美行业分类系统代码51211，NAICS code 51211）与行业内受激励的核心活动最为契合，因此州级电影激励政策的经济影响分析中所使用的乘数，需充分体现该子类别在全行业中的占比情况。我们以俄克拉荷马州（该州NAICS 51211子类别占比极低）为对象开展了一项假设性案例研究，采用了路易斯安那州和新墨西哥州这两个NAICS 51211子类别占比极高的核心电影激励州的乘数数据。通过截面相关性分析以及基于双重差分法（difference-in-difference approach）获取的时间序列证据，路易斯安那州与新墨西哥州的投入产出就业乘数的有效性得到了验证。