Transmission Mechanisms through Which Government-Led Generic Technology R&D Alleviates Supply Chain Bottlenecks

This paper examines how government-led generic technology R&D alleviates supply chain bottlenecks. A DSGE model with four shocks, including government-led generic technology R&D and technology licensing fees, is built within a vertically structured supply chain to characterize equilibrium behavior. Dynamic simulations examine the effects of these shocks on macroeconomic outcomes and supply chain conditions and compare their responses across different degrees of vertical industrial linkage. A quantitative exercise further estimates the multiplier effect of government spending on generic technology R&D to evaluate its policy effectiveness in easing supply chain bottlenecks. The results are as follows. Government-led generic technology R&D enhances technological efficiency in upstream firms, reduces the cost of key intermediate inputs, and expands downstream production, thereby alleviating supply chain bottlenecks. Technology licensing fee shocks raise the cost of technology utilization for upstream firms and transmit cost pressures downstream, which weakens supply chain performance. Weaker vertical industrial linkages reduce interdependence between upstream and downstream firms and provide greater short-term resilience to shocks. The output-enhancing effects of government-led generic technology R&D shocks become more pronounced over the longer term. Technology licensing fee shocks show broadly similar dynamic response patterns across varying levels of vertical industrial linkage.

本文探究了政府主导的通用技术研发（government-led generic technology R&D）如何缓解供应链瓶颈。本文在垂直结构供应链框架内，构建了包含四类冲击（涵盖政府主导的通用技术研发与技术许可费）的动态随机一般均衡模型（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium，DSGE），以刻画经济均衡运行特征。通过动态模拟分析上述冲击对宏观经济结果与供应链运行状况的影响，并对比不同垂直产业关联程度下的冲击响应差异。进一步通过定量测算，估算政府通用技术研发支出的乘数效应，以评估其缓解供应链瓶颈的政策有效性。研究结果如下：政府主导的通用技术研发可提升上游企业技术效率，降低关键中间投入品成本，扩大下游生产规模，进而缓解供应链瓶颈。技术许可费冲击会推高上游企业的技术使用成本，并将成本压力向下游传导，削弱供应链整体运行表现。较弱的垂直产业关联会降低上下游企业间的相互依存度，提升经济体对冲击的短期韧性。政府主导的通用技术研发冲击对产出的提振效应在长期中更为显著。不同垂直产业关联程度下，技术许可费冲击的动态响应模式大体一致。