Replication data for: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy

A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being considerably more effective in recessions than in expansions. Second, we estimate multipliers for more disaggregate spending variables which behave differently relative to aggregate fiscal policy shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of fiscal shocks tends to increase the size of the multipliers in recessions. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63)

当前研究与政策领域的核心议题之一，是经济处于衰退期时财政乘数（fiscal multiplier）的规模大小。本文提出三项核心洞见：其一，通过运用区制转换模型（regime-switching models），我们发现衰退与扩张期的支出乘数规模存在显著差异，财政政策在衰退期的有效性远高于扩张期；其二，我们针对更为细分的支出变量估算了乘数，这类变量的表现与总括性财政政策冲击存在差异，其中军事支出的乘数规模最大；其三，我们证实，对财政冲击的可预测成分进行控制，往往会提升衰退期乘数的估算规模。（JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63）