The Productivity Costs of Premature Mortality Due to Cancer in Australia: Evidence from a Microsimulation Model

Aim
To estimate the productivity costs of premature mortality due to cancer in Australia, in aggregate and for the 26 most prevalent cancer sites.
Methods
A human capital approach was adopted to estimate the long term impacts of Australian cancer deaths in 2003. Using population mortality data, the labour force participation and the present value of lifetime income (PVLI) forgone due to premature mortality was estimated based on individual characteristics at the time of death including age, sex and socioeconomic status. Outcomes were modelled to the year 2030 using economic data from a national microsimulation model. A discount rate of 3% was applied and costs were reported in 2016 Australian dollars.
Results
Premature deaths from cancer in 2003 resulted in 88,000 working years lost and a cost of $4.2 billion in the PVLI forgone. Costs were close to three times higher in males than females due to the higher number of premature deaths in men, combined with higher levels of workforce participation and income. Lung, colorectal and brain cancers accounted for the highest proportion of costs, while testicular cancer was the most costly cancer site per death.
Conclusions
The productivity costs of premature mortality due to cancer are significant. These results provide an economic measure of the cancer burden which may assist decision makers in allocating scare resources amongst competing priorities.

研究目标：本研究旨在估算澳大利亚因癌症过早死亡造成的生产力损失成本，涵盖总体成本及26种最常见癌症部位的分项成本。

研究方法：本研究采用人力资本法，对2003年澳大利亚癌症死亡事件的长期影响进行估算。研究利用人口死亡数据，基于死者死亡时的年龄、性别与社会经济地位等个体特征，估算因过早死亡导致的劳动力参与率损失及终身收入现值（Present Value of Lifetime Income, PVLI）损失。本研究依托全国微观模拟模型的经济数据，将研究结果模拟至2030年；同时采用3%的贴现率，所有成本以2016年澳元计价。

研究结果：2003年澳大利亚癌症过早死亡共造成8.8万个工作年损失，终身收入现值损失达42亿澳元。由于男性过早死亡人数更多，且劳动力参与率与收入水平更高，男性的损失成本约为女性的三倍。肺癌、结直肠癌与脑癌的损失成本占比最高，而睾丸癌的单例死亡损失成本最高。

研究结论：癌症过早死亡造成的生产力损失成本十分显著。本研究结果为癌症负担提供了经济量化指标，可辅助决策者在各类竞争优先级中分配稀缺资源。