青藏高原1公里分辨率多年冻土概率图（2019）

基于最新发布的青藏高原多年冻土存在性证据数据集，利用统计模型计算得到了1公里分辨率青藏高原多年冻土概率分布图。该图考虑了气温、积雪和植被这三个多年冻土分布控制性因素，因此能够准确地反应青藏高原冻土的空间异质性。根据1000多个实测资料验证和与已有多年冻土图的对比结果显示，该图的整体分布精度为82.5%，卡帕系数可达到0.62，在多年冻土下界表现出了更好的分类效果。结果显示，青藏高原多年冻土区面积约为1.54 (1.35–1.66) 百万平方公里, 约占陆地面积的 60.7 (54.5– 65.2)% 。多年冻土面积 约为 1.17 (0.95–1.35）百万平方公里，约占46 (37.3–53.0)%。

Based on the newly released dataset of permafrost occurrence evidence over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a 1-kilometer-resolution permafrost probability distribution map of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was calculated using statistical models. This map considers three controlling factors for permafrost distribution: air temperature, snow cover, and vegetation, thus accurately reflecting the spatial heterogeneity of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Verified by over 1,000 in-situ measurement datasets and compared with existing permafrost maps, the overall distribution accuracy of this map reaches 82.5%, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.62, and it exhibits better classification performance at the lower limit of permafrost. The results show that the area of permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is approximately 1.54 (1.35–1.66) million square kilometers, accounting for about 60.7% (54.5–65.2%) of the terrestrial land area. The area of permafrost itself is approximately 1.17 (0.95–1.35) million square kilometers, accounting for 46% (37.3–53.0%) of the total.