Median projected change in SEI class under RCP4.5 (2071-2100)

<p>Understanding how climate change will contribute to ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity is critical for informing natural resource management. We assessed potential future changes in sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI) under a range of scenarios using an individual plant-based simulation model, integrated with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush ecological integrity. The simulation model allowed us to estimate how climate change, wildfire, and invasive annuals interact to alter the potential abundance of key plant functional types that influence sagebrush ecological integrity: sagebrush, perennial grasses, and annual grasses. This layer shows the median projected change in SEI class (i.e., Core Sagebrush Area, Growth Opportunity Area, Other Rangeland Area) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 for 2071-2100. The future (i.e., 2071-2100) median projected SEI class was calculated as the pixel-wise median across results from 13 Global Climate Models. Change in SEI class, is relative to the SEI class during 2017-2020 time-period. Please see Holdrege et al. 2024 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2024.08.003) for details on our methods (note that this layer is shown in Fig 1a of that manuscript). This layer (as well as layers for other variables, scenarios and time periods) can be downloaded from Science Base (https://doi.org/10.5066/P13RXYZJ). Please note that this layer is the 'c9_median' band of the 'c9_Default_RCP45_2071-2100.tif' file that is on Science Base.</p>

厘清气候变化如何推动艾灌丛生态完整性（sagebrush ecological integrity，SEI）的持续退化，可为自然资源管理决策提供关键依据。本研究依托基于个体植株的模拟模型（individual plant-based simulation model），结合遥感反演得到的当前艾灌丛生态完整性评估结果，对多情景下艾灌丛生态的未来潜在变化进行了评估。该模拟模型可用于估算气候变化、野火与入侵一年生植物的交互作用如何改变影响艾灌丛生态完整性的关键植物功能型（plant functional types）的潜在丰度，具体包括艾灌丛、多年生草本与一年生草本。本图层展示了在代表性浓度路径（representative concentration pathway，RCP）4.5情景下，2071-2100年艾灌丛生态完整性类别（即核心艾灌丛区、生长机遇区与其他牧场用地）的预测中位变化。2071-2100年的未来艾灌丛生态完整性类别预测中位值，是通过对13个全球气候模型（Global Climate Models）的结果逐像素取中位数计算得到的。艾灌丛生态完整性类别的变化为相对变化，基准时段为2017-2020年的艾灌丛生态完整性类别。有关研究方法的详细信息，请参阅Holdrege等人2024年的研究（https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2024.08.003），注：本图层对应该论文中的图1a。本图层（以及其他变量、情景与时段对应的图层）可从科学数据仓库Science Base（https://doi.org/10.5066/P13RXYZJ）下载。请注意，本图层为Science Base上的'c9_Default_RCP45_2071-2100.tif'文件中的'c9_median'波段。