Replication data for: Failures in Contingent Reasoning: The Role of Uncertainty

We propose a new channel to account for the difficulties of individuals with contingent reasoning: the presence of uncertainty. When moving from an environment with one state of known value to one with multiple possible values, two changes occur. First, the number of values to consider increases. Second, the value of the state is uncertain. We show in an experiment that this lack of certainty, or the loss of the Power of Certainty, impedes payoff maximization and that it accounts for a substantial portion of the difficulties with contingent reasoning.

我们提出一种新的解释机制，用以阐释个体在条件推理（contingent reasoning）中面临的困境：即不确定性的存在。当从仅拥有单一已知价值状态的环境，过渡至存在多种潜在价值的环境时，会产生两项变化：其一，需考量的价值总量有所增加；其二，该状态的价值具备不确定性。我们通过实验证实，这种确定性的缺失，或是确定性力量（Power of Certainty）的丧失，会对收益最大化的实现形成阻碍，且该因素在条件推理的各类困难中占据了相当大的比例。