Tariffs and the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations
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Inflation expectations derived from financial markets exhibited unprecedented dynamics in 2025: the correlation between one-year inflation swaps and one-year-ahead one-year forward rates turned significantly negative for the first time on record. We show that this decoupling occurred primarily on
2025年，从金融市场数据推导得到的通胀预期（inflation expectations）展现出前所未有的运行特征：有记录以来首次出现一年期通胀互换（one-year inflation swaps）与提前一年的一年期远期利率（one-year-ahead one-year forward rates）之间的相关性显著为负的现象。本文表明，此种脱钩现象主要发生于
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美国国家经济研究局创建时间：
2026-04-01
