Summary of continuous independent variables.

Adopting agricultural technologies is crucial to improve productivity and livelihoods in developing countries. While much research has focused on adoption decisions, understanding dis-adoption, when farmers stop using technology, is equally important. Studies on agricultural technology adoption often treat dis-adopters (those who initially adopted but later discontinued to use) and never-adopters (those who never adopted) as the same, using binary models to analyze farmers’ decisions. We argue that a better understanding of these decisions can be achieved by separately analyzing ’never-adoption’, ’dis-adoption’, and ’adoption.’ Using nationally representative data from three African countries, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania, we developed a multinomial logit model to analyze the adoption of improved chicken breeds. Our findings show that dis-adopters of improved chicken are different from never-adopters. Factors associated with dis-adoption include gender and education of household heads, access to training and extension services, breeding and culling practices, access to markets, use of complementary inputs, production objectives, landholding size, income diversity, and access to finance. Policies and strategies that aim to enhance sustained adoption and use of improved chicken breeds should promote a bundle of technologies, including tailored training, women empowerment, locally adapted and farmer-preferred chicken breeds, complementary inputs and services, innovative marketing strategies, and delivery models for bundles of technologies.

农业技术采纳对于提升发展中国家的农业生产力与民众生计至关重要。尽管已有大量研究聚焦于技术采纳决策，但理解技术弃用（dis-adoption）——即农户停止使用已采纳技术的行为——同样意义重大。现有关于农业技术采纳的研究常采用二元模型分析农户决策，并将技术弃用者（即最初采纳技术但后续停止使用的农户）与未采纳者（即从未采纳过技术的农户）混为一谈。我们认为，若分别对‘未采纳’‘弃用’与‘已采纳’三类决策展开分析，可更深入地理解农户的技术选择行为。本研究基于埃塞俄比亚、尼日利亚、坦桑尼亚三个非洲国家的全国代表性样本数据，构建多项Logit模型分析改良鸡品种的采纳情况。研究结果表明，改良鸡品种的弃用者与未采纳者存在显著差异。与改良鸡品种弃用行为相关的影响因素包括：户主性别与受教育水平、农技培训与推广服务可及性、家禽繁育与淘汰养殖模式、市场准入情况、配套投入品使用情况、生产目标、土地持有规模、收入多元化程度以及融资渠道。旨在推动改良鸡品种持续采纳与应用的政策与策略，应推广组合式技术方案，具体包括定制化培训、女性赋权、适配本地且受农户青睐的改良鸡品种、配套投入品与服务、创新营销策略以及组合技术的推广交付模式。