The simulation of the wetland biodiversity pattern under dif-ferent land use policies in Sanjiang Plain

Abstract: Involving wetland protection policies into the simulation of the wetland bio-diversity pattern has the potential to improve the accuracy of policy making. In this research, combining the land use change simulation model CA-Markov and a wetland biodiversity simulation model based on hydrological pattern and connectivity, we put forward a comprehensive framework that integrates policy stage division, stage char-acteristics identification, and biodiversity prediction. This framework divided wetland conservation policies implemented in the study area into three stages: promoting (1995-2005), strengthening (2005-2010), and stabilizing (2010-2020). CA-Markov veri-fication confirmed the stages' consistency with actual policy implementation, indicat-ing its usability. Using land use data of different policy stages as input for CA-Markov model, we then predicted the wetland biodiversity pattern in 2030 under different scenarios. The results showed that, the land use and wetland protection policies im-plemented during 2010~2020 were most beneficial for enhancing wetland biodiversity in the study area, with an expected increase of about 8% if continued. This study offers technical and scheme references for the future evaluation of wetland-related policies at the regional scale. It also provides guidance for optimizing the spatial structure and providing numerical goals of land use and wetland protection.

摘要：将湿地保护政策纳入湿地生物多样性格局模拟，有望提升政策制定的准确性。本研究结合土地利用变化模拟模型CA-Markov与基于水文格局及连通性的湿地生物多样性模拟模型，提出了一个整合政策阶段划分、阶段特征识别及生物多样性预测的综合框架。该框架将研究区实施的湿地保护政策划分为三个阶段：推广期（1995-2005年）、强化期（2005-2010年）及稳定期（2010-2020年）。CA-Markov验证结果证实了这些阶段与实际政策实施的一致性，表明该框架具有可用性。以不同政策阶段的土地利用数据作为CA-Markov模型的输入，我们进而预测了不同情景下2030年的湿地生物多样性格局。结果显示，2010~2020年期间实施的土地利用及湿地保护政策对提升研究区湿地生物多样性最为有利，若持续实施，预计将增加约8%。本研究为未来区域尺度湿地相关政策的评估提供了技术与方案参考，也为优化土地利用及湿地保护的空间结构和设定量化目标提供了指导。