Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007

The Greenland Ice Sheet holds around 7.2 meters of sea-level equivalent. In recent decades rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an acceleration in mass loss, adding an average of about 0.5 millimeters per year to global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Current ice margin recession in Greenland is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, the large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the ice sheet interior. Recent progress in measuring ice thickness is enabling models to reproduce the complex flow patterns found in outlet glaciers, a key step towards realistic projections. Here we pair an outlet glacier resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium under different climate forcings. We find that Greenland could contribute 5-33 centimeters to sea-level by 2100 and 11-155 centimeters by 2200, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 6-45% of the total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics, whereas uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This dataset compilation contains the simulations for the manuscript "Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium" prepared with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). This dataset provides the likelihood of a pixel being ice covered at the year 3007 for the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for LES (Large Ensemble Simulations).

格陵兰冰原（Greenland Ice Sheet）约相当于7.2米的海平面当量。近几十年来，大气与海洋温度上升导致其质量损失速率加快，1991至2015年间年均使全球平均海平面上升约0.5毫米。当前格陵兰冰缘的退缩主要由入海冰川（outlet glaciers）的退缩驱动——这类巨型冰河流经狭窄峡湾，将冰盖内部的冰体输送入海。近期冰厚测量技术的进步，使得模型能够复现入海冰川的复杂流动模式，这是实现可信海平面预测的关键一步。本研究将可解析入海冰川过程的冰盖模型与全面的不确定性量化方法相结合，估算了不同气候强迫情景下未来千年内格陵兰冰原对海平面的贡献。研究结果显示，到2100年格陵兰冰原或将使全球海平面上升5至33厘米，到2200年则上升11至155厘米，其中入海冰川的径流贡献占总质量损失的6%至45%。分析表明，质量损失预测的不确定性主要来源于气候情景与地表过程的不确定性，其次为冰动力学过程，而海洋条件的不确定性影响相对较小，在长期尺度下尤为明显。我们预测，若不大幅削减温室气体排放，格陵兰冰原极有可能在千年内完全消融。本数据集汇编包含了采用平行冰盖模型（Parallel Ice Sheet Model, PISM）完成的论文《未来千年格陵兰冰原对海平面的贡献》的相关模拟结果。本数据集提供了大集合模拟（Large Ensemble Simulations, LES）在典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP）2.6、4.5和8.5情景下，公元3007年任一像素被冰覆盖的概率。