Study on Forex Traders' Decision-Making: Risk-Taking or Risk-Avoidance Following Economic News Releases

This preliminary study analyzes the decision-making of forex traders following the release of economic news, particularly during periods marked by increased market volatility. Traders exhibit diverse behavioral responses. Some actively seek opportunities to capitalize on market fluctuations, while others adopt a more cautious approach to minimize potential losses. This study focuses on Generation Z traders, a demographic group known for their high digital literacy, adaptability, and strong presence on online trading platforms. Generation Z traders are characterized by rapid interpretation of information, strong technological skills, and a strong willingness to explore innovative trading strategies. The study also explores how psychological biases and market anomalies influence their decision-making processes. However, there is a paucity of empirical research on how Gen Z forex traders respond to economic news—whether they favor risk-taking or risk-avoidance—and on the roles of fundamental, technical, and behavioral anomalies in shaping their choices. Specifically, it analyzes the influence of fundamental anomalies, herding bias, technical anomalies, overconfidence bias, and risk perception. A quantitative approach, in conjunction with Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), was used to collect data from 40 active Indonesian Gen Z forex traders via an online platform survey in May 2025. The analysis shows that technical and psychological factors significantly influence the risk-taking decisions of Generation Z traders in a volatile, news-aware environment.本初步研究聚焦于经济新闻发布后，尤其是市场波动率升高时段内，外汇交易者的决策行为。交易者展现出多样化的行为响应：部分交易者会主动捕捉市场波动带来的盈利机遇，另一部分则采取更为审慎的策略以降低潜在损失。本研究的研究对象为Z世代（Generation Z）交易者——该群体以较高的数字素养、良好的环境适应能力，以及在在线交易平台的高活跃度为显著特征。Z世代交易者的典型特征包括：信息解读速度快、技术能力过硬，且乐于探索创新性交易策略。本研究同时探讨了心理偏差与市场异象如何影响交易者的决策流程。然而，目前针对Z世代外汇交易者如何响应经济新闻（即其倾向于冒险还是避险），以及基本面、技术面与行为异象如何塑造其交易选择的实证研究仍较为匮乏。具体而言，本研究分析了基本面异象、羊群偏差、技术面异象、过度自信偏差以及风险感知的影响作用。本研究采用定量研究方法，并结合偏最小二乘结构方程模型（Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling, PLS-SEM），于2025年5月通过在线平台问卷，从40名活跃的印尼籍Z世代外汇交易者处收集数据。分析结果表明，在受经济新闻影响的高波动市场环境中，技术面与心理层面因素会显著影响Z世代交易者的冒险型决策。