TABLE 2 in What Will the Future Bring for Biological Invasions on Islands? An Expert-Based Assessment

TABLE 2 | Proportional odds models analyzing if the 15 drivers of biological invasions addressed in the survey significantly increase alien species (A) introduction, (B) establishment, and (C) spread on islands in the 21st century.
(A)IntroductionPredictorsOdds RatioCIpAwareness, Values and Lifestyle1.10.69–1.760.68Climate Change3.752.34–5.99<0.001Biodiversity Loss and degradation5.033.09–8.18<0.001Communication and outreach0.60.37–0.950.03Cooperation, legislation and agreements0.620.39–0.990.04Demography and migration13.618.31–22.27<0.001Eutrophication and Pollution1.550.98–2.450.06IAS management0.250.15–0.40<0.001IAS science0.230.14–0.37<0.001Land Use/Cover change6.694.16–10.77<0.001Ocean Acidification1.140.72–1.790.58Recreation and tourism7.554.74–12.03<0.001Socio-Economic change5.83.63–9.26<0.001Technology and Innovation0.830.53–1.320.43Trade and transport74.4837.85–146.58<0.001Threshold coefficients:Strongly disagree|Disagree0.120.08–0.17<0.001Disagree|Neutral0.550.39–0.780.001Neutral| Agree1.841.30–2.610.001Agree|Strongly agree8.415.86–12.07<0.001(B)EstablishmentPredictorsOdds RatioCIpAwareness, values and lifestyle1.050.65–1.680.84Climate change13.017.96–21.25<0.001Biodiversity loss and degradation29.6917.40–50.67<0.001Communication and outreach0.580.36–0.920.02Cooperation, legislation and agreements0.580.36–0.920.02Demography and migration10.246.28–16.69<0.001Eutrophication and pollution4.252.66–6.80<0.001IAS management0.230.14–0.38<0.001IAS science0.250.15–0.40<0.001Land Use/Cover change23.7714.18–39.87<0.001Ocean acidification2.111.33–3.350.002Recreation and tourism4.42.74–7.07<0.001Socio-Economic change6.213.87–9.99<0.001Technology and innovation0.730.46–1.170.19Trade and transport4.22.60–6.78<0.001Threshold coefficients:Strongly disagree|Disagree0.120.08–0.17<0.001Disagree|Neutral0.50.35–0.71<0.001Neutral| Agree1.821.27–2.590.001Agree|Strongly agree11.177.69–16.22<0.001(C)SpreadPredictorsOdds RatioCIpAwareness, Values and Lifestyle1.110.69–1.780.66Climate Change10.796.64–17.52<0.001Biodiversity Loss and Degradation22.913.51–38.80<0.001Communication and Outreach0.590.37–0.950.03Cooperation, Legislation and Agreements0.610.38–0.970.04Demography and Migration14.288.67–23.51<0.001Eutrophication and Pollution3.652.29–5.81<0.001IAS Management0.240.15–0.39<0.001IAS Science0.250.16–0.41<0.001Land Use/Cover Change15.549.46–25.54<0.001Ocean Acidification1.931.22–3.050.01Recreation and Tourism7.24.48–11.56<0.001Socio-Economic Change6.333.95–10.15<0.001Technology and Innovation0.720.45–1.150.17Trade and Transport13.978.46–23.08<0.001Threshold coefficients:Strongly disagree|Disagree0.120.09–0.18<0.001Disagree|Neutral0.50.35–0.71<0.001Neutral| Agree1.861.31–2.650.001Agree|Strongly agree9.786.77–14.14<0.001
(Continued)

表2 | 比例优势模型（Proportional Odds Models）：检验本调研所覆盖的15项生物入侵驱动因子，是否在21世纪显著促进了岛屿上外来物种的（A）引入、（B）定殖与（C）扩散过程。

(A) 引入阶段
预测因子 | 优势比（Odds Ratio） | 置信区间（Confidence Interval, CI） | p值
认知、价值观与生活方式 | 1.1 | 0.69–1.76 | 0.68
气候变化 | 3.75 | 2.34–5.99 | <0.001
生物多样性丧失与退化 | 5.03 | 3.09–8.18 | <0.001
传播与科普推广 | 0.6 | 0.37–0.95 | 0.03
合作、立法与协议 | 0.62 | 0.39–0.99 | 0.04
人口学与移民 | 13.61 | 8.31–22.27 | <0.001
富营养化与污染 | 1.55 | 0.98–2.45 | 0.06
入侵外来种（Invasive Alien Species, IAS）管理 | 0.25 | 0.15–0.40 | <0.001
入侵外来种（IAS）相关研究 | 0.23 | 0.14–0.37 | <0.001
土地利用/覆被变化 | 6.69 | 4.16–10.77 | <0.001
海洋酸化 | 1.14 | 0.72–1.79 | 0.58
休闲与旅游 | 7.55 | 4.74–12.03 | <0.001
社会经济变化 | 5.8 | 3.63–9.26 | <0.001
技术与创新 | 0.83 | 0.53–1.32 | 0.43
贸易与运输 | 74.48 | 37.85–146.58 | <0.001
阈值系数：
完全不同意|不同意 | 0.12 | 0.08–0.17 | <0.001
不同意|中立 | 0.55 | 0.39–0.78 | 0.001
中立|同意 | 1.84 | 1.30–2.61 | 0.001
同意|完全同意 | 8.41 | 5.86–12.07 | <0.001

(B) 定殖阶段
预测因子 | 优势比（Odds Ratio） | 置信区间（Confidence Interval, CI） | p值
认知、价值观与生活方式 | 1.05 | 0.65–1.68 | 0.84
气候变化 | 13.01 | 7.96–21.25 | <0.001
生物多样性丧失与退化 | 29.69 | 17.40–50.67 | <0.001
传播与科普推广 | 0.58 | 0.36–0.92 | 0.02
合作、立法与协议 | 0.58 | 0.36–0.92 | 0.02
人口学与移民 | 10.24 | 6.28–16.69 | <0.001
富营养化与污染 | 4.25 | 2.66–6.80 | <0.001
入侵外来种（IAS）管理 | 0.23 | 0.14–0.38 | <0.001
入侵外来种（IAS）相关研究 | 0.25 | 0.15–0.40 | <0.001
土地利用/覆被变化 | 23.77 | 14.18–39.87 | <0.001
海洋酸化 | 2.11 | 1.33–3.35 | 0.002
休闲与旅游 | 4.4 | 2.74–7.07 | <0.001
社会经济变化 | 6.21 | 3.87–9.99 | <0.001
技术与创新 | 0.73 | 0.46–1.17 | 0.19
贸易与运输 | 4.2 | 2.60–6.78 | <0.001
阈值系数：
完全不同意|不同意 | 0.12 | 0.08–0.17 | <0.001
不同意|中立 | 0.5 | 0.35–0.71 | <0.001
中立|同意 | 1.82 | 1.27–2.59 | 0.001
同意|完全同意 | 11.17 | 7.69–16.22 | <0.001

(C) 扩散阶段
预测因子 | 优势比（Odds Ratio） | 置信区间（Confidence Interval, CI） | p值
认知、价值观与生活方式 | 1.11 | 0.69–1.78 | 0.66
气候变化 | 10.79 | 6.64–17.52 | <0.001
生物多样性丧失与退化 | 22.91 | 13.51–38.80 | <0.001
传播与科普推广 | 0.59 | 0.37–0.95 | 0.03
合作、立法与协议 | 0.61 | 0.38–0.97 | 0.04
人口学与移民 | 14.28 | 8.67–23.51 | <0.001
富营养化与污染 | 3.65 | 2.29–5.81 | <0.001
入侵外来种（IAS）管理 | 0.24 | 0.15–0.39 | <0.001
入侵外来种（IAS）相关研究 | 0.25 | 0.16–0.41 | <0.001
土地利用/覆被变化 | 15.54 | 9.46–25.54 | <0.001
海洋酸化 | 1.93 | 1.22–3.05 | 0.01
休闲与旅游 | 7.2 | 4.48–11.56 | <0.001
社会经济变化 | 6.33 | 3.95–10.15 | <0.001
技术与创新 | 0.72 | 0.45–1.15 | 0.17
贸易与运输 | 13.97 | 8.46–23.08 | <0.001
阈值系数：
完全不同意|不同意 | 0.12 | 0.09–0.18 | <0.001
不同意|中立 | 0.5 | 0.35–0.71 | <0.001
中立|同意 | 1.86 | 1.31–2.65 | 0.001
同意|完全同意 | 9.78 | 6.77–14.14 | <0.001

（续表）