Replication data for: Fertility and Childlessness in the United States

We develop a theory of fertility, distinguishing its intensive margin from its extensive margin. The deep parameters are identified using facts from the 1990 US Census: (i) fertility of mothers decreases with education; (ii) childlessness exhibits a U-shaped relationship with education; (iii) the relationship between marriage rates and education is hump-shaped for women and increasing for men. We estimate that 2.5 percent of women were childless because of poverty and 8.1 percent because of high opportunity cost of childrearing. Over time, historical trends in total factor productivity and in education led to a U-shaped response in childlessness rates while fertility of mothers decreased. (JEL I20, J13, J16, N31, N32)

本文构建了生育率理论，对其集约边际（intensive margin）与广延边际（extensive margin）加以区分。本文借助1990年美国人口普查（US Census）的事实数据对模型深层参数进行识别，具体包括以下三类特征：
(i) 母亲生育率随受教育程度提升而下降；
(ii) 无子女比例与受教育程度呈U型关系；
(iii) 女性的婚姻率与受教育程度呈倒U型关系，而男性的婚姻率则随受教育程度提升单调递增。
经估算，2.5%的女性因贫困陷入无子女状态，另有8.1%的女性则因育儿的机会成本过高而选择无子女。随着时间推移，全要素生产率（total factor productivity）与受教育程度的历史演变趋势，使得无子女率呈现U型响应，同时母亲生育率持续下降。(JEL I20, J13, J16, N31, N32)