Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia

ABSTRACT This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050.

摘要 本研究针对朗多尼亚州全域应用森林砍伐模型，设定三类森林砍伐情景：常规发展情景、乐观情景与悲观情景。上述情景依托Dinamica EGO软件构建，模拟时段为2012年至2050年。朗多尼亚州森林砍伐数据集由朗多尼亚州环境局（Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia）提供，并作为森林砍伐模拟建模的输入数据。基于本研究结果，经估算：若分别采用乐观、常规发展及悲观情景，到2050年朗多尼亚州原生林的完全砍伐占比将达到32%、37%与47%。无论选取何种情景，未来数十年内森林砍伐活动都将在空间上集中于朗多尼亚州北部区域。然而，若采用常规发展或悲观情景，最值得关注的问题或将是保护区的完整性受损。此外，预计到2050年，森林破碎化程度将出现显著提升。