Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture-recapture approach with a case study on Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus)

1. In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long-term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models for estimating demographic parameters in free-ranging animal populations mostly ignore extended parental care, thereby limiting our understanding of its consequences on parents and offspring life histories.

2. We designed a capture-recapture multi-event model for studying the demography of species providing extended parental care. It handles statistical multiple-year dependency among individual demographic parameters grouped within family units, variable litter size, and uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence. It allows for the evaluation of trade-offs among demographic parameters, the influence of past reproductive h...

1. 在具有延伸亲代抚育（extended parental care）的物种中，单亲或双亲会在包含多个繁殖季节（breeding season）的时期内照料晚成雏（altricial young）。我们推测，家庭单元内大量的亲代投入与长期依赖会导致个体生命轨迹的高度变异，并在种群层面产生复杂的后果。目前，用于估算自由放养动物种群中种群统计参数（demographic parameters）的模型大多忽略了延伸亲代抚育，从而限制了我们对其在亲代与后代生活史中影响的理解。

2. 我们设计了一种捕获-重捕获多事件模型（capture-recapture multi-event model），用于研究具有延伸亲代抚育的物种的种群统计学特征。该模型可处理家庭单元内个体种群统计参数间的多年统计依赖、可变窝仔数（variable litter size）以及后代独立时间的不确定性。它能够评估种群统计参数间的权衡关系、过往繁殖历史对...