SCO trade statistics (2022).

The study examines export impact of Pakistan’s integration into Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on its export’s performance. We apply Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) on augmented gravity model to estimate trade data from the period before and after permanent membership with Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2017. The study aims to explore changes in exports volume and analyze the key mechanism through which Shanghai Cooperation Organization promotes exports. The study assesses that after integration which key exports sector such as agriculture or manufacturing sectors are affected more significantly. The initial findings suggest that SCO integration positively affect and provide access to Central Asian markets, leading to modest but noticeable promotion in exports promotion. In heterogeneity analysis we find that exports of Pakistan are more significant with low and middle-income level countries compared to higher-income level countries. Additionally, exports in the manufacturing sector benefited more than in the agriculture sector. The significant and positive findings of mechanism analysis indicate that the belt and road (B&R) initiative and bilateral trade agreements are the key factors to enhanced exports. The overall impact remains moderated by structural changes in Pakistan economy, such as poor infrastructure, deficiency in energy sector and limited trade relations with its neighbors India and Iran. The study concludes that although the SCO integration has positively promoted exports of Pakistan however, it requires to address domestic economic constraints and capitalize more effectively the benefits of SCO membership through regional cooperation mechanism. For more potential benefits in the region SCO needs to expand B&R connectivity, encourage more trade agreements, and adopt favorable environment to attract high income countries in the organization. The study provides the base for future research in depth analysis of long-term impact of SCO integration on Pakistan exports.

本研究探讨巴基斯坦加入上海合作组织（Shanghai Cooperation Organization，SCO）对其出口表现的影响效应。本研究采用拓展引力模型，结合泊松伪极大似然（Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood，PPML）估计法，对巴基斯坦2017年成为上合组织正式成员国前后的贸易数据开展计量分析。研究旨在探究出口规模的变化，并剖析上海合作组织推动出口增长的核心作用机制；同时评估巴基斯坦加入上合组织后，农业、制造业等核心出口部门受影响的显著程度差异。初始研究结果显示，加入上合组织对巴基斯坦产生了正向影响，为其打通了中亚市场渠道，推动出口实现了小幅但显著的增长。异质性分析结果表明，相较于高收入国家，巴基斯坦对低收入及中等收入国家的出口增长更为显著；此外，制造业部门的出口获益程度高于农业部门。机制分析的显著正向结果表明，一带一路（Belt and Road，B&R）倡议与双边贸易协定是推动巴基斯坦出口增长的核心因素。但巴基斯坦经济的结构性矛盾仍对整体出口增长效应形成制约，例如基础设施薄弱、能源领域供给不足，以及与邻国印度、伊朗的贸易关系受限等。本研究总结认为，尽管加入上合组织对巴基斯坦出口产生了正向推动作用，但该国仍需解决国内经济制约因素，并通过区域合作机制更高效地利用上合组织成员国身份带来的发展红利。为进一步挖掘区域合作的潜在收益，上合组织需深化一带一路互联互通建设，推动更多双边贸易协定签署，并营造良好营商环境以吸引高收入国家加入组织。本研究为未来深入分析上合组织融入对巴基斯坦出口的长期影响提供了研究基础。