The Long Winter of 1880/81 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

The story of the winter of 1880/81 in the central United States has been retold in historical fiction, including Laura Ingalls Wilder’s The Long Winter, as well as in local histories and folklore. What story does the meteorological data tell, and how does it measure up when compared to the fiction and folklore? What were the contributing factors to the severity of the Long Winter, and has it been or could it be repeated? Examining historical and meteorological data, reconstructions, and reanalysis, including the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index, the Long Winter emerges as one of the most severe since European-descended settlers arrived to the central United States and began documenting weather. Contributing factors to its severity include an extremely negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern, a mild to moderate El Niño, and a background climate state that was much colder than the twentieth-century average. The winter began early and was particularly cold and snowy throughout its duration, with a sudden spring melt that caused subsequent record-setting flooding. Historical accounts of the winter, including The Long Winter, prove to be largely accurate in describing its severity, as well as its impacts on transportation, fuel availability, food supplies, and human and livestock health. Being just one of the most severe winters on record, there are others in the modern historical record that do compare in severity, providing opportunity for comparing and contrasting the impacts of similarly severe winters.

1880/1881年美国中部地区的冬季故事，不仅在劳拉·英加尔·怀尔德（Laura Ingalls Wilder）的《漫长的寒冬》（The Long Winter）这类历史小说中被反复演绎，也在地方史与民间传说中广为流传。那么气象数据究竟勾勒出怎样的冬季图景？与小说及民间传说相比，其真实性又如何？造成此次“漫长寒冬”极端性的成因有哪些？这场寒冬是否已经重演，或是未来仍有可能重现？通过对历史与气象数据、气候重建结果及再分析资料（包括冬季季节累积严重度指数（Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index））的研究分析，可发现“漫长的寒冬”是自欧洲裔定居者抵达美国中部并开始记录气象数据以来，最极端的冬季事件之一。其极端性的成因包括：极强负相位的北大西洋涛动（North Atlantic Oscillation）、弱至中等强度的厄尔尼诺（El Niño）现象，以及整体气候背景较20世纪平均水平更为寒冷。此次冬季开启时间偏早，全程气温偏低且降雪量充沛，春季融雪突然且迅猛，引发了破纪录的洪涝灾害。包括《漫长的寒冬》（The Long Winter）在内的冬季相关历史记载，在描述此次极端寒冬的严重程度，以及其对交通、燃料供给、粮食供应、人类与牲畜健康的影响方面，整体上准确度颇高。作为有记录以来最极端的冬季事件之一，现代历史记录中仍存在多场严重程度与之相当的寒冬，这为对比分析同类极端冬季事件的影响提供了研究契机。