Forecasting High-Impact Weather in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using a Warn-on-Forecast System Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the greatest natural threats to life and property in the United States, since they can produce multiple hazards associated with convective storms over a wide region. Of these hazards, tornadoes within TC rainbands pose a particularly difficult forecast problem owing to their rapid evolution and their frequent occurrence coincident with additional hazards, such as flash flooding and damaging winds. During the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma impacted the continental United States, causing significant loss of life and billions of dollars in property damage. Application of the Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) concept of short-term, probabilistic guidance of convective hazards (Stensrud et al. 2009, 2013), including the potential for tornadoes within TCs, offers the ability to provide forecasters with valuable tools for prioritizing the relative risk from multiple convective threats and effectively communicating them to the public. Grant no. NA11OAR4320072

登陆热带气旋（Landfalling tropical cyclones，TCs）是美国面临的最严重的生命与财产威胁型自然灾害之一，因其可在大范围区域内引发与对流风暴相关的多种灾害。在上述各类灾害中，热带气旋雨带内的龙卷风因其演变迅速、且常与山洪暴发、破坏性大风等其他灾害同时发生，成为预报难度极高的问题。在2017年大西洋飓风季期间，飓风哈维与艾尔玛袭击了美国本土，造成重大人员伤亡与数十亿美元的财产损失。应用“预报预警（Warn-on-Forecast，WoF）”理念，即针对对流灾害提供短期概率化指导（Stensrud等，2009、2013），其中涵盖热带气旋内龙卷风发生的可能性，可为预报人员提供实用工具，使其能够对多种对流威胁的相对风险进行优先级排序，并有效向公众传递相关信息。资助编号：NA11OAR4320072