SIMULATION OF URBAN GROWTH: A CASE STUDY FOR CURITIBA CITY, BRAZIL

Abstract: The present work seeks to model the simulation of the landscape of the city of Curitiba, through the use of cellular automata (CA) algorithms, together with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing tools. Four models were elaborated, having as input data classified images from the years 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2014; and different time intervals between the initial and final landscape of the models. Geographic data of the city were also used, as well as the current legislation of the municipality, and such data contributed to the robustness of the modelling. Two validation tests were applied to verify the adequacy of the simulated models concerning the observed reality. The validation performed by the Multiple Resolutions Adjustment method indicated that the model elaborated with data from 2009 and 2011 reached the highest similarity index, being equal to 0.88. Thus, it was possible to carry out geosimulations and these indicated that, as long as the trends observed in the past are maintained, the urban expansion of the municipality will occur at the expense of vegetation.

摘要：本研究旨在通过元胞自动机（cellular automata, CA）算法，结合地理信息系统（Geographic Information Systems, GIS）与遥感工具，对库里蒂巴市的城市景观开展模拟建模。本研究共构建4类模型，输入数据为2006、2009、2011及2014年的分类影像，且各模型的初始与最终景观对应的时间间隔各不相同。研究同时采用了该市的地理数据以及当前市级法规，上述数据有效提升了建模的稳健性。为验证模拟模型与实际观测场景的适配性，本研究设置了两项验证测试。其中，多分辨率调整（Multiple Resolutions Adjustment）法的验证结果显示，以2009年与2011年数据构建的模型相似度指数最高，达0.88。由此可推知，若维持过往观测到的发展趋势，该市的城市扩张将以植被资源的牺牲为代价。