Data from: Spatial analysis of anthropogenic landscape disturbance and Buruli ulcer disease in Benin

Background: Land use and land cover (LULC) change is one anthropogenic disturbance linked to infectious disease emergence. Current research has focused largely on wildlife and vector-borne zoonotic diseases, neglecting to investigate landscape disturbance and environmental bacterial infections. One example is Buruli ulcer (BU) disease, a necrotizing skin disease caused by the environmental pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans (MU). Empirical and anecdotal observations have linked BU incidence to landscape disturbance, but potential relationships have not been quantified as they relate to land cover configurations. Methodology/Principal Findings: A landscape ecological approach utilizing Bayesian hierarchical models with spatial random effects was used to test study hypotheses that land cover configurations indicative of anthropogenic disturbance were related to Buruli ulcer (BU) disease in southern Benin, and that a spatial structure existed for drivers of BU case distribution in the region. A final objective was to generate a continuous, risk map across the study region. Results suggested that villages surrounded by naturally shaped, or undisturbed rather than disturbed, wetland patches at a distance within 1200m were at a higher risk for BU, and study outcomes supported the hypothesis that a spatial structure exists for the drivers behind BU risk in the region. The risk surface corresponded to known BU endemicity in Benin and identified moderate risk areas within the boundary of Togo. Conclusions/Significance: This study was a first attempt to link land cover configurations representative of anthropogenic disturbances to BU prevalence. Study results identified several significant variables, including the presence of natural wetland areas, warranting future investigations into these factors at additional spatial and temporal scales. A major contribution of this study included the incorporation of a spatial modeling component that predicted BU rates to new locations without strong knowledge of environmental factors contributing to disease distribution.

背景：土地利用与土地覆被（Land use and land cover, LULC）变化是一类与新发传染病相关的人为干扰因素。当前相关研究多聚焦于野生动物与虫媒人畜共患病，却鲜有探讨景观干扰与环境细菌性感染的关联。布鲁里溃疡（Buruli ulcer, BU）便是典型案例之一：这是一种由环境致病菌溃疡分枝杆菌（Mycobacterium ulcerans, MU）引发的坏死性皮肤病。已有实证与非系统性观察均将布鲁里溃疡的发病率与景观干扰建立关联，但二者间的潜在关系尚未结合土地覆被格局进行量化分析。
研究方法与主要结果：本研究采用引入空间随机效应的贝叶斯层级模型这一景观生态学研究方法，验证两项研究假说：其一，表征人为干扰的土地覆被格局与贝宁南部的布鲁里溃疡发病风险相关；其二，该区域布鲁里溃疡病例分布的驱动因素存在空间结构特征。本研究的最终目标是生成研究区域内的连续型风险分布图。
研究结果显示，在1200米缓冲范围内，被自然形态而非受干扰湿地斑块环绕的村庄，其布鲁里溃疡发病风险更高；同时研究结果支持该区域布鲁里溃疡风险驱动因素存在空间结构的假说。本研究生成的风险表面与贝宁国内已知的布鲁里溃疡地方性流行区域相契合，并在多哥境内划定了中等风险区域。
结论与意义：本研究首次尝试将表征人为干扰的土地覆被格局与布鲁里溃疡患病率建立关联。研究结果识别出包括自然湿地分布在内的多项显著影响变量，为后续在更多空间与时间尺度上开展相关研究提供了科学依据。本研究的一项重要贡献在于引入了空间建模模块，可在无需全面掌握影响疾病分布的环境因子的前提下，对新区域的布鲁里溃疡发病率进行预测。