Multi-Decadal Spatial and Temporal Forest Cover Change Analysis of Nkandla Natural Reserve, South Africa.

The research was conducted on the premise that natural forest contributes to the provision of ecosystem services, but they are dwindling at an alarming rate. Periodic monitoring is needed to provide information on the status of the forest to assist in management planning. This research, therefore, presents a spatiotemporal change detection analysis of the Nkandla Forest reserve in South Africa. The research looks into the decadal changes that took place between 1989 and 2019. Four forest cover types which are closed canopy, open canopy, grasslands and bare sites were mapped and assessed. There were consistent gains and losses among each of the cover types at each decade with the prominent changes occurring between the closed and open canopy forest. These changes were as a result of ecological and chronic anthropogenic factors. The prediction of the future forest cover distribution was done for 2029 and 2039. The prediction shows a decline in the closed-canopy forest, a moderate increase in the grassland and a marginal increse in the open canopy forest.

本研究以天然林有助于提供生态系统服务，但当前天然林正以惊人速度缩减为前提展开。为辅助森林管理规划，需通过定期监测获取森林现状相关信息。因此，本研究针对南非恩坎德拉森林保护区（Nkandla Forest reserve）开展时空变化检测分析，聚焦1989年至2019年间的十年尺度变化。研究对封闭冠层林、开放冠层林、草地及裸地四类森林覆盖类型进行了制图与评估。各覆盖类型在每十年间均存在持续的增减动态，其中以封闭冠层林与开放冠层林之间的转化最为显著。上述变化由生态因素与长期人为活动共同驱动。研究还完成了2029年与2039年的森林覆盖分布预测，结果显示封闭冠层林面积将呈下降趋势，草地面积将实现适度增长，开放冠层林面积将有小幅提升。