Replication Data for: How Do Economic and Geospatial Factors Shape Conflict? A Bayesian Spatial Risk Approach to Nigeria

The importance of economic and geospatial drivers on the dynamics of conflict is well-documented, but often subnational drivers in broader aggregate analysis are ignored. By combining spatial econometrics with the greed-grievance framework, we provide a spatial risk analysis methodology within fragile states. To fill this gap, a Bayesian spatial methodology is used to investigate linkages between developmental variables, natural resource endowments and conflict types in Nigeria between 1997 and 2023. Leveraging Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) along with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE), the analysis includes 14 variables in four types of conflicts. Predictive validation suggests that although wealth reliably acts as a protective factor, the effects of ethnic fractionalization and resource proximity vary greatly by actor. While the former raises the risk of joining an organized militia, the latter lowers the risk of rioters. These findings illustrate the fact that resource driven greed and socio-economic grievances lead to the formation of distinct spatial clusters and therefore require actor specific policy interventions. The resultant high-resolution conflict risk maps thus serve to inform targeted investments, development initiatives and operational planning as well as working towards achieving long-term stability through strategic interventions and community engagement.

经济与地理空间驱动因素对冲突动态的重要性已有充分文献佐证，但在更广泛的整体分析中，次国家层面的驱动因素常被忽视。本研究将空间计量经济学与贪婪-不满框架（greed-grievance framework）相结合，为脆弱国家构建了一套空间风险分析方法。为填补这一研究空白，我们采用贝叶斯空间方法，对1997至2023年尼日利亚的发展变量、自然资源禀赋与冲突类型之间的关联展开探究。本研究借助集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似（Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, INLA）与随机偏微分方程（Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, SPDE），针对四类冲突共纳入14个分析变量。预测验证结果显示，尽管财富确实可作为保护性因素，但族群碎片化与资源邻近度的影响因冲突行动者而异，差异显著：族群碎片化会提升参与有组织民兵的风险，而资源邻近度则会降低民众参与骚乱的风险。本研究结果表明，资源驱动的贪婪诉求与社会经济不满情绪会催生特征鲜明的空间集聚集群，因此需针对不同冲突行动者制定差异化的政策干预方案。最终生成的高分辨率冲突风险地图，可为定向投资、发展举措与行动规划提供决策参考，同时也可通过战略干预与社区参与助力实现长期稳定。