Data_Sheet_3_Sensitivity analysis of indicator weights for the construction of flood vulnerability indexes: A participatory approach.docx

The assessment of flood vulnerability is a complex task that involves numerous uncertainties. Within this context, sensitivity analyses are crucial to better understand the variability of vulnerability index outcomes according to different input parameters. The present study sheds light on the importance of assessing the sensitivity of different criteria weights to construct flood vulnerability indexes using the Maquiné basin (Brazil) as a case study. Specifically, we compared vulnerability scores based on weights derived from a participatory survey with 44 stakeholders to those based on an equal weighting scheme. Results helped us identify areas with low and high uncertainty and the variables contributing to this. Overall, the preference for indicator weights did not vary significantly among stakeholders with distinct socioeconomic characteristics. Furthermore, the choice of weights only had an impact on the spatial distribution of flood vulnerability in certain regions. Compared to equal weights, the flood vulnerability outcomes obtained by averaging the stakeholder scenarios were similar, indicating that the results were robust and not highly sensitive to the choice of weights. By adopting a participatory approach, we were able to consider multiple stakeholders' views, which helped to provide a more comprehensive perspective of flood vulnerability and potentially increased the acceptance of the results. Based on our findings, end-users can better understand the relative importance of each indicator and how they contribute to vulnerability. Furthermore, our results can help identify points where stakeholders disagree, which can be used to facilitate dialogue and consensus building. The methodology applied is straightforward and could be easily adapted to other multi-criteria decision-making problems.

洪水脆弱性评估是一项涉及诸多不确定性的复杂任务。在此背景下，敏感性分析对于明晰不同输入参数下脆弱性指数结果的变化特征至关重要。本研究以巴西马基尼（Maquiné）流域为案例研究对象，阐明了评估不同准则权重对构建洪水脆弱性指数的敏感性的重要性。具体而言，本研究将基于44名利益相关者参与式调查（participatory survey）所得权重计算的脆弱性得分，与采用等权重方案（equal weighting scheme）得到的得分进行了对比。研究结果明确了不确定性程度各异的区域，以及导致该不确定性的相关变量。总体而言，具有不同社会经济特征的利益相关者对指标权重的偏好并无显著差异。此外，权重选择仅对部分区域的洪水脆弱性空间分布产生影响。相较于等权重方案，通过平均各利益相关者场景得到的洪水脆弱性结果并无明显差异，这表明研究结果具备稳健性，且对权重选择的敏感性较低。通过采用参与式研究方法，本研究兼顾了多方利益相关者的观点，从而得以更全面地解析洪水脆弱性特征，同时也提升了研究结果的认可度。基于本研究发现，终端用户能够更好地理解各项指标的相对重要性及其对脆弱性的贡献机制。此外，研究结果可用于识别利益相关者存在分歧的议题，进而助力开展对话与共识构建。本次研究所采用的方法简便易行，可轻松适配其他多准则决策（multi-criteria decision-making）问题。