fig_ageDistribution.csv from When to end a lock down? How fast must vaccination campaigns proceed in order to keep health costs in check?

We propose a simple rule of thumb for countries which have embarked on a vaccination campaign while still facing the need to keep non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in place because of the ongoing spread of SARS-CoV-2. If the aim is to keep the death rate from increasing, NPIs can be loosened when it is possible to vaccinate more than twice the growth rate of new cases. If the aim is to keep the pressure on hospitals under control, the vaccination rate has to be about four times higher. These simple rules can be derived from the observation that the risk of death or a severe course requiring hospitalization from a COVID-19 infection increases exponentially with age and that the sizes of age cohorts decrease linearly at the top of the population pyramid. Protecting the over 60-year-olds, which constitute approximately one-quarter of the population in Europe (and most OECD countries), reduces the potential loss of life by 95 percent.

我们针对已启动疫苗接种计划，但仍因SARS-CoV-2（严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型）持续传播而需维持非药物干预措施（non-pharmaceutical interventions, NPI）的国家，提出了一项简易经验法则。若以遏制死亡率攀升为目标，则当疫苗接种速率达到新增病例增速的两倍以上时，即可放宽非药物干预措施；若目标为维持医院接诊压力可控，则疫苗接种速率需达到新增病例增速的四倍左右。上述简易法则可基于以下观测结论推导得出：新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）感染者出现死亡或需住院治疗的重症病情的风险随年龄呈指数级增长，而人口金字塔顶端的各年龄组人口规模呈线性递减。保护60岁以上人群——该群体在欧洲及多数经济合作与发展组织（OECD）国家中约占总人口的四分之一——可使潜在生命损失降低95%。