DataSheet1_Quality of Democracy Makes a Difference, but Not for Everyone: How Political Interest, Education, and Conceptions of Democracy Condition the Relationship Between Democratic Quality and Political Trust.pdf

In light of recent crises, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, citizen trust in the political system has been highlighted as one of the central features ensuring citizen compliance and the functioning of democracy. Given its many desirable consequences, one of the key questions is how to increase political trust among ordinary citizens. This paper investigates the role of democratic quality in determining citizens’ trust in the political system. While we know that citizens’ evaluations of democratic performance are a strong predictor of political trust, previous research has shown that trust is not always higher in political systems with higher democratic quality, indicating that democratic performance evaluations do not always correspond to actual democratic quality. Several moderating factors may account for this disconnect between democratic quality and citizens’ evaluations of democratic performance and, ultimately, political trust. For one, citizens may receive different information about the political system; second, they may process this information in different ways; and third, they may have different standards of what democratic quality ought to be. Using survey data from three rounds of the World Values Survey (2005–2020) and aggregate data on democratic quality and other macro determinants of political trust from the V-Dem project and World Development Indicators for 50 democracies around the world, this contribution empirically investigates the complex relationship between democratic quality, democratic performance evaluations, and political trust in multi-level moderated mediation models. Its findings demonstrate that democratic quality affects political trust indirectly through citizens’ democratic performance evaluations and that this indirect effect is stronger for citizens with higher political interest, higher education, and especially those with more liberal conceptions of democracy.

鉴于近期各类危机，尤以新冠疫情（COVID-19 pandemic）大流行为甚，公众对政治体系的信任已被视作保障公民服从与民主运行的核心特征之一。鉴于政治信任具有诸多积极效应，学界核心议题之一便是如何提升普通公民的政治信任水平。本研究旨在探讨民主质量（democratic quality）对公民政治信任的决定作用。尽管已有研究表明，公民对民主表现（democratic performance）的评价是政治信任的强预测因子，但既往研究亦发现，民主质量更高的政治体系中，公民政治信任未必更高，这意味着公民的民主表现评价并不总能与实际的民主质量相契合。有若干调节变量（moderating factors）可解释民主质量与公民民主表现评价之间的脱节，进而影响最终的政治信任水平。其一，公民获取的政治体系相关信息存在差异；其二，公民处理此类信息的方式各不相同；其三，公民对民主质量的评判标准亦存在分歧。本研究采用2005-2020年三轮世界价值观调查（World Values Survey）的调研数据，以及来自V-Dem项目（V-Dem project）与世界发展指标（World Development Indicators）的全球50个民主国家的民主质量及其他政治信任宏观决定因素的汇总数据，通过多层调节中介模型（multi-level moderated mediation models）对民主质量、民主表现评价与政治信任间的复杂关系展开实证检验。研究结果显示，民主质量可通过公民的民主表现评价对政治信任产生间接影响，且该间接效应在政治关注度更高、受教育程度更高的公民中更为显著，尤以持有更偏向自由主义的民主观的公民为甚。