Influencing factors system of the AFSCRE.

Increasingly frequent disruptions from diseases, disasters, and human activities pose a significant challenge to the resilience of the agri-food supply chain (AFSCRE). This study systematically explores the factors influencing AFSCRE and their mechanisms of action by integrating fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM). Based on bibliometrics and expert interviews, a three-dimensional indicator system (12 key factors) contains flexibility, agility, and visibility. Triangular fuzzy numbers were used to process expert rating data, and combined with the Converting Fuzzy Numbers into Crisp Scores (CFCS) defuzzification method to establish a total influence matrix. The strength of the influence relationships between factors was determined through the setting of appropriate thresholds, which ultimately results in a five-layer hierarchical structure. The research results show that: level of application of digital technologies, information system maturity, information sharing and synergies, data sharing and analysis capacity and risk management capacity constitute the deep driving factors; degree of simplification of the supply chain structure and level of inventory management are the direct surface factors, presenting isolated characteristics. The study proposes resilience enhancement strategies such as supplier diversification, blockchain traceability technology embedding, and multi-body collaborative decision-making mechanisms, which provide decision support for coping with climate change and public health emergencies.

日益频发的疾病、灾害及人类活动引发的干扰事件，对农业食品供应链韧性（agri-food supply chain resilience，AFSCRE）构成了严峻挑战。本研究融合模糊决策试验与评价实验室法（fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory，DEMATEL）与解释结构模型法（Interpretative Structural Modeling，ISM），系统探究了影响农业食品供应链韧性的各类因素及其作用机制。本研究基于文献计量学分析与专家访谈，构建了包含柔性、敏捷性与可视性三个维度的三维指标体系，共涵盖12项关键影响因素。研究采用三角模糊数处理专家评分数据，并结合模糊数转清晰值法（Converting Fuzzy Numbers into Crisp Scores，CFCS）开展去模糊化处理，进而构建总影响矩阵。通过设置合理阈值确定各因素间影响关系的强度，最终得到五层层级结构。研究结果表明：数字技术应用水平、信息系统成熟度、信息共享与协同效应、数据共享与分析能力以及风险管理能力构成了深层驱动因素；供应链结构简化程度与库存管理水平为直接表层因素，呈现出孤立性特征。本研究提出了供应商多元化、区块链溯源技术嵌入、多主体协同决策机制等韧性提升策略，可为应对气候变化与公共卫生突发事件提供决策支撑。