The Political Economy of Personnel Expenditures: Brazilian States, 1965-1994

ABSTRACT The main purpose of the paper is to test a model that explains variation in the ratio of expenditure with personnel in Brazilian states from 1965 to 1994. The independent variables include indicators of the political environment in the distinct states, such as number of veto players and level of political competition. Furthermore, variables that model the business electoral cycle and institutional changes during the period were also included in the model. The budgetary, electoral and legislative data were collected for 22 states from 1965 to 1995. OLS Regression with panel corrected standard errors was used to test the main hypotheses. Results indicate that the impact of political variables appears to be conditioned by the broader national institutional framework. During the authoritarian period expenditures with personnel were influenced by the electoral business cycle and by the presence of more than one party in the state legislature. In the democratic period, electoral vulnerability of state legislators and the electoral cycle are the most important political factors influencing expenditures with personnel.

摘要：本研究旨在检验一个用于解释1965年至1994年巴西各州人员支出占比变化的模型。模型的自变量涵盖不同州的政治环境指标，包括否决权参与者数量与政治竞争程度。此外，本模型还纳入了刻画该时期商业选举周期与制度变迁的相关变量。研究收集了1965年至1995年间22个州的预算、选举及立法数据。本研究采用面板校正标准误的普通最小二乘（OLS）回归方法检验核心假说。研究结果表明，政治变量的影响似乎受更广泛的国家制度框架所制约。在威权统治时期，人员支出受商业选举周期以及州议会中多党并存局面的影响；而在民主时期，州议员的选举脆弱性与选举周期则是影响人员支出的最核心政治因素。