A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change

Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input–output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling “technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios” (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30–87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

气候变化减缓行动需要在全球范围内开展大规模技术变革，若能成功落地，将深刻改变产品与服务的生产及消费模式。为了预判气候变化减缓情景下产品的全生命周期环境影响，本研究提出了覆盖全球9个区域的集成混合生命周期评估（Life Cycle Assessment, LCA）模型建模框架。本研究基于2℃温控情景下至2050年的技术与资源预测变化，对生命周期评估数据库及多区域投入产出表进行了适配调整。我们将该建模所得的成果命名为“集成情景技术混合环境经济模型（Technology Hybridized Environmental-economic Model with Integrated Scenarios, THEMIS）”。作为案例研究，本研究将该模型应用于聚光太阳能发电（Concentrating Solar Power, CSP）的集成环境评估中。2010年，全球不同区域内该类电站的全生命周期温室气体排放量介于33至95克二氧化碳当量/千瓦时之间，到2050年这一范围将降至30至87克二氧化碳当量/千瓦时。基于区域全生命周期数据开展分析可获得颇具价值的研究结论。从更广泛的层面来看，该研究结果也凸显了构建系统性全生命周期分析框架的必要性，该框架需能够捕捉大规模政策在长期维度下的实际影响与反馈效应。