Replication Data for: New Estimates of U.S. Civil War Mortality From Full-Census Records

The Civil War was the deadliest conflict in U.S. history. However, incomplete records have made it difficult to estimate the exact death toll both nationally, and especially, at state-level. In this article, we leverage the recently released full count of individual census returns and a sample of linked records across multiple censuses to provide (i) the most precise national estimate of excess mortality to date and (ii) the first reliable state-level estimates of excess mortality among native-born white males. Our national estimate is 698,000 Civil War deaths. This is substantially higher than the conventional historical estimate of 618,000 but lower than the most recent estimate of around 750,000 deaths based on a 1% census sample. Leveraging a novel migration-adjusted census comparison method, we document for the first time the extent to which the war's toll was much greater in the Confederate states than in the Union.

美国内战是美国历史上最致命的冲突。然而，不完整的记录使得无论是全国层面，还是尤其在州层面，都难以估算确切的死亡人数。在本文中，我们利用近期发布的个人人口普查申报表完整计数，以及跨多次人口普查的关联记录样本，提供了（i）迄今为止最精确的全国超额死亡率（excess mortality）估算，以及（ii）首个可靠的本土出生白人男性超额死亡率州层面估算。我们的全国估算结果为69.8万内战死亡人数。这一数字显著高于传统历史估算的61.8万，但低于基于1%人口普查样本的最新估算值（约75万）。通过采用新颖的迁移调整人口普查比较法，我们首次记录了内战伤亡在邦联州远高于联邦州的程度。